On June 16, at around 4 p.m., Chinese Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Canberra, Australia for his second stop of the visit, preparing to meet with Australian Prime Minister Albanese on Monday. During his first stop in Adelaide, South Australia, Li Keqiang claimed that the China-Australia relationship is back on track and expressed his expectation for a comprehensive strategic partnership. However, senior strategic security experts believe that the chances for this partnership are slim.
Li Keqiang arrived in Adelaide, South Australia on Saturday, kicking off his four-day visit to Australia. The Chinese Embassy in Canberra announced that Li Keqiang stated that the bilateral relationship has returned to the correct development track after experiencing twists and turns, and he expressed his anticipation for “a more mature, stable, and fruitful comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Australia.”
Earlier, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian also mentioned that Li Keqiang and Mr. Albanese will discuss the current state of bilateral relations, as well as international and regional issues of “common concern,” referring to this visit as an opportunity to strengthen high-level exchanges and highlighting the China-Australia comprehensive strategic partnership.
Australian Prime Minister, in an article in The Australian, stated that under his government’s diplomatic efforts, the trade relationship between the two countries was salvaged, leading to the lifting of China’s trade ban on a range of Australian export goods worth $20 billion Australian dollars. He emphasized the importance of this action, highlighting China as Australia’s largest trading partner and the significant role Australian resources play in China’s economic transformation and regional growth.
Financial expert Mr. Wu Jialong told Epoch Times that when Australia mentioned conducting an independent investigation into the virus origin, China got angry and wanted to control foreign exchange spending, subsequently leading to not purchasing Australian lobster, red wine, beef, coal, among others. Australia then sold these to other countries, which then resold them to China at a higher price, making China pay extra.
Using Australian coal as an example, he explained that Australian power coal is of high quality, and if China does not buy from Australia, they turn to Malaysia, Singapore to make the purchase and resell it to China at a profit, impacting China’s economy negatively.
He emphasized that currently, China lacks credibility in its statements, making it challenging for Australia and China to easily restore their relationship.
Director of the Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources at the National Defense Research Institute, Su Ziyun, told Epoch Times that this is another economic incentive for China to use economic and market weapons to fracture the unity of Western democratic countries. “China is now seeking to use Australia as a breakthrough point; however, Australia has also been subjected to economic sanctions by China during the pandemic. Therefore, the possibility of the Australian government forming a strategic partnership with China is quite reserved.”
He analyzed that even Europe is increasing tariffs on some Chinese products, and if Australia is persuaded by Beijing to form a so-called partnership, “although it may not have much substantive significance, I think the chances are low. Because in Europe, China previously took a more economically cooperative attitude through initiatives like the Belt and Road, including Lithuania, Italy, which have now completely changed. So, I believe Australia should cautiously consider the opportunity to establish a so-called strategic partnership with China.”
Assistant Researcher at the Institute of Defense and Security Studies, Zhong Zhidong, believed that China lifting the ban on Australian agricultural products is a form of economic normalization, beneficial for both sides economically, stressing that economic and security issues should be viewed separately.
Zhong Zhidong believed that China has so-called strategic partnerships with many countries. “China hopes to strengthen its security issues with relevant countries through these so-called strategic partnerships. However, we can clearly see that in terms of security issues, even Labor Prime Minister Albanese, though showing a relatively more lenient attitude towards China compared to previous prime ministers, has not changed his stance on executing strategic competition with China after taking office.”
“He is strengthening cooperation with Western ally partners to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The most prominent action is his intention to continue AUKUS, to proceed with the plan to build nuclear submarines with the United States and the United Kingdom.”
He emphasized that Australia’s construction of nuclear submarines primarily aims to actively collaborate with the United States to counter China’s expansionism in the entire Indo-Pacific region. During the Quad meeting, Australia actively cooperates with the United States to promote the Quad security dialogue, aiming to create a regional security dialogue mechanism to counter China’s regional security provocations.
Wu Jialong also noted that “Australia now also needs to get involved in the South China Sea, seeking to introduce nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, militarily aligning with the United States and Japan, and gradually reducing its reliance on the Chinese market economically. Now that China has realized it needs to make amends, it won’t be that easy.”
Zhong Zhidong believed that China was meticulously trying to portray an image, that under the economic sanctions of the United States and Europe, it can restore normal economic relations with Australia, hoping to showcase it as one of the breakthrough strategies against the trade blockade by the United States and Europe. Both sides hope to improve their economic relations under the so-called political-economic separation circumstances.
Su Ziyun also believed that “China has always wanted to use this kind of united front method to fracture Western democratic countries. This aspect, I believe, the United States will remind Australia of.”
He believed that objectively, China is facing significant economic challenges, “the first is the impact of the China-US trade war, the second is the end of China’s demographic dividend. According to UN statistics, China’s population aged 65 and above has reached 14.9%, and those aged 60 and above may reach 19.8%, so China is facing these impacts, and the prospects for economic development are relatively limited.
Wu Jialong pointed out that even if China has talent in the economic sector, it cannot be leveraged as it is interfered with by Chinese politics. “Now Li Keqiang is just carrying out tasks, putting on a show, which is not effective in reality.”
Apart from geopolitical factors, Wu Jialong believed that China is unwilling to take responsibility, resulting in countries trading with it bearing losses, such as Germany’s critical automotive industry. “Wanting to sell cars in the Chinese market, China ended up exporting electric cars to Europe, hitting Germany’s automotive industry. Now everyone understands that trading with China results in losses.”
He described China as a giant baby, “When you need it to take responsibility, it says it’s a child, but acts grown-up usually. Claiming to be a grown-up, the second-largest economy demands this and that; when it comes to international responsibilities, it says it’s a baby, playing this game.”
In April this year, a report titled “Unveiling the Mysterious Face of China’s Investment in Australia” by KPMG and the University of Sydney revealed that in 2023, China’s investment in Australia dropped by 37%, falling to only $892 million USD (13.6 billion AUD). Besides the peculiar circumstances of the pandemic in 2021, this is the lowest investment level since 2006.
Moreover, U.S. President Biden, in an interview with Time Magazine on June 4, stated that the “Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse.” Many experts had previously believed that China’s economic problems are more severe than imagined, potentially undermining the regime.