The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) recently held a hearing, pointing out that the CCP is preparing for all-out combat against Taiwan. How to identify signs of an impending war? Participants at the hearing said that CCP leader Xi Jinping’s focus on security serves a dual purpose, potentially signaling plans for an attack on Taiwan. He is attempting to balance between security and development, but not without consequences.
The hearing, held by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) under the US Congress, on Thursday (13th), focused on whether China is preparing for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
This hearing took place amidst escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, US actions to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, and Washington’s concern about the increasing use of high-end semiconductor exports to China for military purposes.
Commission member Cliff Sims began by stating that the strategic preparations made by the CCP for the “worst and extreme scenarios” have permeated various levels of the country. He revealed that some US intelligence personnel predict that the Chinese military could be ready for war as early as next year.
Gabe Collins, a researcher at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, testified that Xi Jinping’s extreme concern is “war,” as China has made necessary preparations to confront the US when needed.
In May last year, Xi Jinping said during the 20th meeting of the Central Committee for National Security that they must “adhere to bottom line thinking and extreme thinking, and be prepared to withstand major tests in turbulent times, even shocking waves.”
Regarding signs preceding a Chinese attack, US Democratic Senator Carte Goodwin pointed out that “dramatic shifts in reserves and production are a long-standing historical indicator of significant action by a country.”
He said that monitoring changes in economic indicators in China, such as food, energy, and finance, can help the US issue warnings of an imminent war outbreak.
Collins added that warning signs from Beijing before a war could include an increase in above-ground crude oil storage utilization, construction of more underground crude oil storage facilities, and building new or expanding existing pipelines from Russia or Central Asia.
“Activities at refined oil reserve facilities within 500 miles of Taiwan, coal inventories exceeding the average levels of the past 3-5 years, and so on,” he said.
From a narrative and propaganda perspective, Lauri Paltemaa, a professor at the University of Turku’s East Asian Studies Center in Finland, stated at the hearing, “One of the things we will first see is the demonization of Taiwan’s population by China because (in a war) there will be a large number of civilian casualties.”
He mentioned that once Beijing feels that dialogue attempts have failed and all avenues have been explored, there could be a change in narrative where they demonize those who may lose their lives in the war.
Paltemaa pointed out that Beijing will enhance emergency training for ordinary people, including how to evacuate, seek shelter, and administer first aid, especially in provinces close to Taiwan such as Fujian, Guangdong, and Zhejiang.
“If emergency management discourse begins to discuss external threats or enemies more, this will be a key indicator.”
The US needs to strengthen its collection and monitoring of China’s reserve capabilities and changes in war mobilization across various sectors, including military, finance, energy, and food.
Participants at the hearing also stated that under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the authorities are increasingly focusing on comprehensive national security. However, they may also have dual purposes.
For example, Beijing established a strengthened emergency management system after the massive 2008 Sichuan earthquake, aimed at dealing with natural disasters. However, they noted that the system includes air-raid shelters and supply stations, with parallel functions for preparing for any conflict.
Katja Drinhausen, project leader at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany, said, “Many of the things we are talking about today, such as disaster preparedness, and all the cozy internal feeling-good information surrounding national security and business struggles, they can play very different roles.”
She added, “They can be used for reconstruction, they can be used for handling domestic crises, they can be used for addressing international conflicts.”
Drinhausen further explained that aside from official propaganda, grassroots national security campaigns, training, and testing conducted by Beijing are aimed at preparing the Chinese people for difficult times.
“Xi Jinping is trying to balance between security and development, but security is the top priority,” she said. “What we are seeing unfolding reflects a strategic effort, but at the same time, it also brings serious side effects.”
Xi Jinping has paid a price for his security-first approach to domestic issues and policies restricting US regional alliances and technology exports. Drinhausen pointed out that the most significant side effect is the continuous decline in the Chinese economy and the ongoing erosion of public confidence in China.
(Reference: Voice of America, Financial Times)