This week and into the next, California is bracing for a series of storm systems that are expected to bring significant weather changes to the region. The first storm following the beginning of winter will hit Southern California in the early hours of Friday, bringing light to moderate rainfall. The following days will see the arrival of two more storms, with the potential for additional rainfall on Monday night and around Thursday of next week. Meteorologists have aptly termed this weather phenomenon a “storm train,” describing the consecutive systems arriving in close succession.
According to the National Weather Service, rain is expected to accumulate between 0.25 and 1 inch across most areas of Southern California from about 7 PM on Friday until roughly 4 AM the following morning. Wind gusts may accompany the rainfall, and coastal areas could experience large waves measuring between 7 and 12 feet. While the total rainfall amounts may appear low, there is still a possibility of localized heavier downpours.
In particular, Los Angeles beaches might experience moderate coastal flooding, especially on Saturday. Rainfall is projected to taper off from Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with light rain on Monday evening bringing totals unlikely to exceed 0.25 inches. A third wave of rainfall may occur next Thursday, with forecasts suggesting similar precipitation amounts of around 0.25 to 1 inch. The Oxnard branch of the National Weather Service anticipates that these subsequent storms will not have a significant impact.
Beginning Friday, gusty winds from the southwest or northwest are expected in the inland areas of Los Angeles County, with sustained wind speeds around 10 miles per hour and gusts potentially reaching 30 to 35 miles per hour. These large waves are expected to persist until Tuesday of next week, with the first surge arriving on Friday and continuing into Saturday, followed by a second surge next Monday. Coastal regions in Western Southern California could see wave heights reaching between 8 and 12 feet. Forecasters are advising beachgoers to exercise caution due to dangerous rip currents and to stay clear of rocky outcrops and jetties.
Owing to the risks associated with the large waves, several beaches in Monterey County and all beaches in Santa Cruz have been temporarily closed. The Oceano Dunes, the only beach in California accessible by car, has prohibited beach camping until next Monday, and vehicles will not be allowed on Oceano and Pismo Beach on Saturday.
On Friday, the San Francisco National Weather Service issued a high surf advisory, effective until 4 AM Sunday. The advisory notes that in areas such as San Francisco, southern Monterey Bay, and the Big Sur coast, waves may reach heights of 25 to 35 feet, and in certain locations, sporadic waves may reach between 40 and 50 feet. The advisory cautions that these waves could crash onto beaches, overtop seawalls, and inundate nearby low-lying infrastructure. During the advisory period, the public is strongly advised to avoid entering beaches, coastal paths, roadways, or buildings, and to keep a safe distance from water bodies and waterfront structures such as jetties and docks.
Another notable phenomenon affecting the California coastline is the unusually high sea surface temperatures. According to data from the surfing forecast site and related buoys, temperatures near the Santa Monica Pier in Los Angeles reached between 72 and 73.8 degrees Fahrenheit this Friday, exceeding the typical seasonal averages by more than 10 degrees. This November has recorded some of the highest sea temperatures seen in nearly 20 years.
Colin McCarthy, founder of the organization “Storm Watch,” remarked in an interview with KTLA that he has never encountered sea temperatures as high in California during November in his lifetime. Buoys near Santa Maria in Santa Barbara County measured temperatures of 71.5 degrees Fahrenheit, a striking 13 degrees above the typical levels for this time of year, while waters off San Diego County reached approximately 75 degrees, exceeding averages by about 11 degrees.
Meteorologist Daniel Swain from Weather West commented on social media that the sea temperatures along the California coast have dramatically risen to truly “astonishing” levels. He noted that at the Farallon Islands—part of the well-known cold upwelling region of Northern California—the water temperature now exceeds 66 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking historical records for this time of year.
Swain attributes these anomalous conditions to the interplay between an exceptionally strong El Niño and previously established ocean heatwaves, leading meteorologists to meticulously verify their data for accuracy.
Records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate that California’s coastal water levels have also reached historic highs recently. Locations such as San Diego, Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, and La Jolla have all reported record high water levels, driven primarily by the Kelvin waves associated with El Niño, thermal expansion effects, and astronomical tides.
McCarthy emphasized that the series of unusual phenomena observed is primarily a consequence of the strong El Niño that has now arrived.