During the period from January to March this year, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) surpassed China in terms of exports to the United States for the first time in six quarters. This suggests that trade in the region is undergoing changes as global supply chains are being reshuffled.
On Thursday, June 13th, based on statistics from ASEAN Secretariat, various government sources, and local media reports, the Nikkei Asia compiled the trade data of the 10 ASEAN countries.
The results revealed that from January to March this year, ASEAN’s exports to the US reached $67.2 billion, surpassing exports to China at $57 billion. Experts indicate that this trend reflects China’s economic slowdown, with the US increasingly sourcing semiconductors and electronic components from ASEAN.
Taking Malaysia as an example, exports to the US in the first quarter of this year increased by 8%, while exports to China decreased by 3.3%.
Intan Nadia Jalil, an analyst at CIMB Group, told Nikkei Asia, “The current trend is being driven by both structural and cyclical factors.”
She stated, “Although China remains a crucial part of the (electrical and electronic products) value chain, rising costs and political tensions such as the US-China trade dispute are pushing US companies to realign outside of China, benefiting Malaysia in the process.”
Arinah Najwa, an analyst at Bower Group Asia, mentioned, “US companies are de-risking from China, diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on China, and Malaysia, with its robust manufacturing ecosystem, strategic location, and skilled workforce, emerges as an attractive alternative.”
In the case of Vietnam, in 2023, the US and China accounted for 28% and 17% of its exports, respectively. In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam’s exports to the US grew by 24% to $25.7 billion, the highest among ASEAN countries, surpassing Thailand’s $12.6 billion and Singapore’s $12 billion.
Economist Le Dang Doanh in Hanoi told Nikkei Asia that the US and Vietnam complement each other well.
Le Dang Doanh expressed that Vietnamese products are competitively priced and can be exported to the US, including smart phones, electronic products, agricultural and aquatic products, wooden furniture, textiles, and clothing.
“The export potential of Vietnam to the US market remains significant, bringing benefits to both sides,” he said.
He added, “Some Chinese exports face high tariffs imposed by the US, reducing market competitiveness, which creates an advantage for Vietnamese products.”
Similarly, Thailand’s exports to China in the first quarter dropped by 5.1%, whereas due to exports of agricultural and industrial products, exports to the US increased by 9.8%.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) at the Thai Ministry of Commerce, attributed this mainly to weakened demand from China.