With the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate Joe Biden securing primary victories in Guam and the US Virgin Islands on June 8th, the primary election schedule for the 2024 US presidential election officially concluded. Both Biden and Republican candidate Trump reached the threshold of delegates needed for their respective party nominations back in March. With less than 5 months until the final election on November 5th, what insights can we glean from the overall results of the primaries leading up to the general election?
Biden swept the Democratic primaries in Guam and the US Virgin Islands on June 8th, winning all 7 electoral votes from each.
In Guam, voters did not directly cast ballots for presidential candidates; instead, 7 individuals known as electors voted on behalf of the voters and pledged to support Biden as Democratic National Convention delegates.
At the Virgin Islands’ primary meeting, Biden received 467 out of 469 votes, securing all 7 electoral votes. According to local Democratic Party officials, of the two votes not cast for Biden, one went to self-help author Marianne Williamson and the other chose “Uncommitted.” A vote for “Uncommitted” indicates a voter’s refusal to support any specific candidate on the ballot.
The conclusion of these last two primaries marked Biden’s victory in 53 out of 54 primary contests. His sole defeat came in American Samoa, where he lost to relatively lesser-known candidate Jason Palmer. Despite Palmer winning 51 votes to Biden’s 40 in a total of only 91 votes cast, Biden still managed to split the 6 electoral votes in American Samoa, each receiving 3.
Biden’s journey to secure the Democratic presidential nomination began in 2022 when he proposed removing Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional positions as the first states to hold primary votes and replacing them with South Carolina, citing the critical role South Carolina played in his final victory in the 2020 election.
The Democratic National Committee approved this new plan, but New Hampshire expressed displeasure at being downgraded and still scheduled its primary 11 days before South Carolina’s. Subsequently, Biden chose to skip the primary in New Hampshire to avoid violating the new party rules set for him. However, his supporters in New Hampshire successfully initiated a write-in campaign for Biden, allowing him to avoid a potential embarrassing defeat in the first contest.
Throughout the primary process, Biden faced minimal challenges from within the party, with Williamson, Palmer, and US Congressman Dean Phillips’ primary challenges failing to gain much traction.
After a brief run in the Democratic primaries, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. opted to withdraw from the Democratic Party and entered the race as a third-party candidate, challenging both Biden and Trump.
The Republican presidential primaries ended on June 4th in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota, with Trump sweeping all 94 electoral votes from these states. Out of a total of 2,381 delegates in the Republican primary, Trump won 2,231, garnering a 93.7% support rate.
In the 54 contests of the 2024 Republican presidential primaries, Trump only lost in Washington, D.C., and Vermont – both Democratic strongholds – where former Trump administration UN Ambassador Nikki Haley emerged victorious.
Starting from mid-November 2022, Trump officially began his campaign trail back to the White House. Following the just-concluded 2022 midterm elections, where Republicans performed poorly and faced many defeats, many within the GOP blamed Trump and questioned how far he could go in the 2024 election.
Establishment Republicans backed Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as “Trump alternatives” to challenge Trump in the primaries. Other challengers to Trump in the primaries included former Vice President Mike Pence, US Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina, and young biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
In 2023, Trump faced indictments in four federal and state criminal investigations, prompting most of his primary competitors to refrain from criticizing him, redirecting their focus towards arguing against what they viewed as unjust legal actions by the Justice Department targeting Trump.
Pence and Scott dropped out of the 2023 Republican primary debates. Trump, leading in polls, chose not to participate in the primary debates.
On January 15, 2024, the Republican primaries kicked off in Iowa with Trump securing the first victory, positioning himself with a substantial lead. That same evening, Ramaswamy announced his withdrawal from the race. DeSantis also dropped out on the day before the second primary in New Hampshire on the 22nd.
Haley was Trump’s final primary challenger, exiting the race a day after disappointing Super Tuesday’s performance on March 5.
The criminal cases against Trump seemed to solidify the Republican base’s support for him, a dynamic unexpected by both the GOP establishment and the Democratic Party.
President Biden’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict stirred controversy within the Democratic Party. Some left-wing groups organized campaign activities in several states encouraging voters to choose the “Uncommitted” option in the primaries rather than casting their ballots for Biden.
In 24 states and Washington, D.C., the Democratic Party received over 793,000 “Uncommitted” and its variants. Michigan recorded the highest number of “Uncommitted” votes, with nearly 102,000 voters opting for this choice. Hawaii had the highest proportion of “Uncommitted” votes at 29%, despite the actual vote count of only 463.
The “Uncommitted” movement persisted until the end of the primary calendar, with the proportion of “Uncommitted” votes ranging from 8% to 10% in the final four Democratic presidential primaries.
Following the Republican primary on March 15, Trump surpassed the delegate count threshold, becoming the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Subsequently, Trump faced a scenario within the GOP where some voters continued to cast ballots for the withdrawn Haley.
In the 21 Republican primaries held after Haley’s withdrawal, she still garnered over 1.3 million votes. As a non-candidate, Haley received over 20% of the votes in Maryland and Indiana, and over 15% in Washington, Nebraska, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Kansas. Additionally, nearly 49,000 Republican voters across seven states chose some form of “Uncommitted.”
Haley has since declared her support for Trump, with the extent to which her supporters will shift allegiance to Trump remaining uncertain.
Both campaign teams have acknowledged this and are now working to attract dissatisfied voters from the opposing side to their camp. For instance, Trump’s campaign has reached out to Arab-American communities in Michigan, while Biden’s team is actively engaging with moderate Republicans.
In recent months, many polls have been closely monitoring how the 34 criminal charges against Trump in New York’s “hush money” case might impact the November election.
Earlier speculations by experts and legal scholars suggested that a guilty verdict could deal a devastating blow to Trump politically. A poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena found that a guilty judgment would solidify support for Biden, predicting a 10-point lead for Biden at 49% compared to Trump’s 39%.
At that time, it seemed likely that Trump would face trials in all four cases before the November election.
However, the actual unfolding of events revealed that the long-considered politically weakest case, the “hush money” case, became the only one brought to trial before the election.
The latest polls show that the conviction in the “hush money” case has had little significant impact on Trump’s conviction rate.
A new poll released on June 5 by The New York Times/Siena re-interviewed 2,000 voters who participated in polls in April and May. Initially, Trump enjoyed a 3-point lead over Biden at 48% to 45%.
After the jury found Trump guilty, his support dropped by 1 point, while support for Biden increased by 1 point, leaving both candidates tied at 47% to 46%, effectively a statistical tie within the margin of error.
Swing state polls also indicate that the conviction may not harm Trump, and could potentially even aid him.
A recent Fox News poll showed that following the guilty verdict, Trump extended his lead over Biden to 5 points in Arizona (51% to 46%) and Nevada (50% to 45%). Significantly, Trump and Biden were tied among Democratic voters in the predominantly Democratic state of Virginia at 48% each.
Several polls also highlight that the key issues surrounding this year’s election are inflation, the economy, and illegal immigration.