The Taiwan Inspirational Association (TIA) today announced the results of the September “Taiwan Situation Survey,” which showed that public satisfaction with the government’s governance has climbed to 62%, while the rate of people believing that Taiwan’s overall economic situation is good has also reached 60%, marking a new high in TIA’s tracking surveys.
TIA conducted a nationwide public opinion survey on government governance, economic performance, national defense and cross-strait issues. The press conference invited Professor Chiu Shih-yi from the Department of Political Science at Tunghai University and Professor Fan Shih-ping from the Graduate Institute of Political Science at National Taiwan Normal University to jointly interpret the political implications behind the data. The survey was conducted from September 10 to 15 with 600 landline and mobile phone interviews each, totaling 1,200 valid samples.
TIA CEO Lai Rong-wei pointed out that TIA’s polling uses a one-to-one sampling configuration of landline and mobile phones, different from the commonly seen 70-30 structure in general surveys, aiming to better reflect the real public opinion given the increasing prevalence of mobile phone users.
The survey revealed that 62% of the public are satisfied with the current government’s performance, a significant increase of over 25 percentage points from September last year, showing a continued upward trend. The dissatisfaction rate is 37%. Among reasons for dissatisfaction, political polarization ranks first at 43%, followed by fraud issues at 34%, judicial issues at 30%, and price issues at 28%. It is worth noting that cross-strait relations only accounted for 18%, a significant decrease from the past.
Analyzing the increase in satisfaction with governance, Professor Chiu attributed it mainly to the positive performance in economic development. 60% of the public believe that Taiwan’s current overall economic situation is good. He pointed out that the vigorous development of the semiconductor industry driving the stock market’s strong performance has allowed many people to physically feel the dividends of economic growth, which is a key factor in boosting satisfaction.
However, public perception of high prices remains strong. Among respondents who think the economy is bad, 44% listed high prices as the top concern, followed by 34% for income inequality, 34% for high housing prices, and 30% for low incomes. Professor Chiu reminded that inflation is an inevitable phenomenon accompanying economic growth, but the government still needs to actively address it, especially since housing prices are deeply felt among the 20 to 29 age group.
The survey also showed that only 35% of the public are satisfied with the performance of the Legislative Yuan, with a high dissatisfaction rate of 63%, maintaining a similar level in previous surveys. The main reasons for dissatisfaction are “serious party political confrontation affecting parliamentary operations” at 42%, followed by “partisan interests overriding national interests” at 40%, and “inefficient or delayed budget reviews” at 36%.
Regarding the Legislative Yuan’s freeze on cutting the Presidential Office’s secretarial expenses, 58% of the public expressed opposition, higher than the 41% who supported it. Lai Rong-wei pointed out that this data illustrates that the majority of people do not agree with using budget means for political maneuvers, especially since the frozen funds were originally intended for purchasing Mid-Autumn Festival products for shelters and vulnerable groups, but the budget blockage forced the cancellation of the procurement plan, leading to public resentment.
Professor Chiu emphasized that if the blue and white camps can engage in debates on rhetoric and convince the public with policies, voters will naturally make judgments. However, using budget cuts and freezes to exert pressure is not a practice welcomed by the majority of the public.
In the field of national defense and security, the survey revealed a high level of social consensus. 69% of the public support the government increasing defense spending to over 3% of the GDP, with the 20 to 39 age group having the highest support rate of 73%, surpassing other age groups. 82% of the public believe that the frequent presence of Chinese Coast Guard and research vessels in the waters surrounding Taiwan, known as “gray zone operations,” poses a serious threat to national security; while 67% believe that increased military activities by the US and other democratic countries in the Taiwan Strait are helpful for Taiwan’s security.
Lai Rong-wei summarized three cross-party consensuses revealed by the survey: first, national defense and sovereignty issues receive high attention regardless of political affiliations, with “Taiwanese determining Taiwan’s future” being the mainstream opinion; second, issues related to personal economy and household economy also receive cross-party support, with 80% of the public approving of a policy to distribute NT$10,000 in cash, with similar support rates from both those leaning toward the Democratic Progressive Party (82%) and the Kuomintang (81%); third, the recognition of the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party transcends party lines.
Professor Fan Shih-ping analyzed from international and cross-strait perspectives. When it comes to issues related to the Chinese Communist Party using Taiwanese individuals to promote pro-unification views through interviews in mainland Chinese official media, 71% of the public believe it has a serious impact, with only 28% considering it not serious. Among them, females perceive it as serious at 76%, higher than males at 66%; and the 20 to 39 and over 60 age groups are more alert compared to other age groups.
Professor Fan Shih-ping stated that the steadfast stance shown by females on national security issues is admirable, as seen through both the survey data and recent political activities, where the participation and enthusiasm of female participants are higher than males, making it a prideful phenomenon in Taiwanese society.
Professor Chiu emphasized that the younger generation is not lacking awareness of the Chinese Communist Party’s extensive external propaganda efforts despite the proliferation of social media platforms. Looking at the data, the 20 to 29 age group is actually among the most alert on several national security-related topics. He believes that the heightened tension across the strait experienced by Taiwan over the past decade has made the younger generation acutely aware of the threats, showing that the democratic way of life cannot be shaken by technological means or propaganda offensives alone.
On the issue of Taiwan’s high-tech industry expanding to set up factories in democratic partner countries such as the US and Japan, 62% of the public expressed support, with 37% against it. Support is highest among the 20 to 39 age group at 72%. Professor Fan Shih-ping pointed out that although the blue and white camps have long argued that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company setting up factories in the US would “hollow out Taiwan,” the majority of the public does not agree with this view. Similarly, 67% of the public believe that increased military activities by the US and democratic countries in the Taiwan Strait contribute to Taiwan’s security, showing that the so-called “suspicions about the US” are not widely supported in mainstream public opinion.
Furthermore, 57% of the public support the Mainland Affairs Council’s strict review of events organized or hosted by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office with a clear pro-unification nature, while 41% do not support it. Professor Fan Shih-ping believes that the majority of the public see through the covert unification intentions behind public exchanges, positioning mainstream public opinion on the side of supporting national security and countering infiltration.
In terms of party leanings in this survey, the Democratic Progressive Party accounts for 43%, the Kuomintang 22%, the People First Party 12%, with 22% stating no political affiliation. Professor Chiu pointed out that this reflects a fundamental shift in the basic block of party identification in Taiwan, with the pro-Green camp outnumbering the pro-Blue camp by about 1.5 to 2 times.
Lai Rong-wei concluded by stating that nationwide surveys have significant implications for local elections. Using the examples of the 2014 and 2018 local elections, he explained how the fermentation of national issues indeed impacts the dynamics of local elections. Based on the observations from this survey data, a strong national economic performance and rising satisfaction with governance have a positive “retrospective voting” effect for the ruling party. However, voter behavior ultimately depends on the actual experiences of local economies, household economies, and personal economies, coupled with faction mobilization and strategic voting, making it inadequate to draw simple inferences solely based on national data.