Turkey, following the imposition of a 40% additional tariff on electric cars imported from China in March 2023, issued a presidential decree on June 8th to levy an additional 40% tariff on all other cars imported from China (minimum $7,000 tariff per vehicle), effective from July 7th. While most countries have import tariffs around 10%, why has Turkey increased the tariff on Chinese electric cars to 50% (10% original tariff + 40% additional tariff) and expanded it to all Chinese cars?
Turkey, as an emerging industrialized country and a member of the G20 like China, with a GDP per capita of around $10,655 in 2022, has a development level similar to that of China. Compared to the Chinese Communist Party, Turkey’s advantage lies in its economic system, which aligns more with the West. It is a founding and member country of the OECD and has long-established customs union with the EU. As Turkey moves away from export-oriented policies, it inevitably needs to compete with China, with tariffs being one of the most effective tools to do so.
For instance, Turkey currently produces around 1.5 million cars annually, with 70% to 80% being exported overseas, mainly to Europe. In response to the EU’s carbon reduction plan, Turkey has made its domestic electric car industry a focal point. In December 2019, Turkey introduced the prototype of its first domestically produced electric cars, including a C-segment SUV and electric sedan. In October 2022, Turkey’s first domestic car brand, TOGG, began mass production. From January to November 2023, Turkey’s electric car sales increased tenfold year-on-year, and in the first two months of 2024, pure electric car sales in Turkey reached 8,255 vehicles, ranking among the top five EU countries. Meanwhile, TOGG has also surged, selling over 2,800 vehicles in the first two months of 2024, becoming one of the market leaders. The debut of its first pure electric SUV model, T10X, at an exhibition has garnered widespread attention.
However, on the streets of Turkey, the number of Chinese brand cars is rapidly increasing. In 2023, including newcomers like BYD, the number of brands with Chinese heritage increased to nine. Furthermore, in 2024, 42 new models of electric cars will enter the Turkish market.
In this scenario, Turkey using high tariffs to protect its automotive and electric vehicle industries is natural.
Turkey’s actions also reflect China’s strong overseas expansion in the automotive industry, particularly in electric vehicles. For example, in 2022, China’s automobile exports reached 3.111 million vehicles, making it the world’s second-largest automobile exporter. Among them, exports of new energy vehicles reached 679,000 units, a 120% year-on-year increase. In 2023, China exported a total of 4.91 million vehicles (surpassing Japan to become the world’s largest exporter), a 57.9% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 1.203 million units, a 77.6% year-on-year growth.
It’s not just automobiles and electric vehicles. China’s industrial and manufacturing overcapacity is causing significant global impact. For instance, in 2023, China’s steel imports saw a significant drop year-on-year (importing 7.645 million tons of steel, a 27.6% decrease; importing 3.267 million tons of steel billets, a 48.8% decrease), while exports of Chinese steel saw a substantial increase, reaching the fourth-highest level since 2016: exporting 90.264 million tons of steel, a 36.2% increase; with an average export price of $936.8 per ton, a 32.7% decrease; exporting 3.279 million tons of steel billets, a 225.2% increase. This implies that in 2023, China’s steel exports accounted for over 20% of global trade flows, making it a target of concern for other countries and escalating trade tensions.
In fact, according to statistics from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s China Trade Remedy Information website, as of 2023, among the global trade remedy cases initiated against China, there were 1,704 anti-dumping investigations, accounting for nearly 30% of global anti-dumping cases; 213 countervailing duty investigations, exceeding 30% of global countervailing duty cases; 408 safeguard investigations, representing almost 85% of global safeguard cases, with all special safeguard cases targeted at China, totaling 89.
These numbers can be seen in import and export data. In 2000, China’s total import and export volume reached $474.3 billion, with exports totaling $249.2 billion and imports totaling $225.1 billion. However, after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s total import and export value broke through $2 trillion in 2004, $3 trillion in 2007, $4 trillion in 2011, and $5 trillion in 2013. In 2000, China ranked seventh in global exports (accounting for 3.9% of the world’s export trade value), surpassing Germany in 2009 to become the world’s largest exporter, with its export share reaching 10.4% in 2010. With its exports surging, China enjoyed a long-term trade surplus, a phase known as “China Shock 1.0.”
However, after 2011, China’s economic growth rate continued to decline, hovering around the $4 trillion level in import and export trade since breaking through $4 trillion. It wasn’t until 2021 when the total import and export volume surged to $6 trillion; maintaining at this level in 2022, but in 2023 dropped to $5.94 trillion, with exports at $3.38 trillion (international market share of 14.2%, consistent with 2022). Since 2021, the Chinese Communist Party has sought to boost economic growth through exports, leading to a surge in exports, known as “China Shock 2.0.”
Faced with “China Shock 2.0,” the world can’t stand still. For the US and the West, with China’s global ambitions expanding, the US and the West are engaging in an “extreme strategic competition” with China, striving to “reduce risks” with China, actively promoting the global supply chain’s “de-China-fication,” enhancing technology export controls, delaying China’s use of manufacturing transformation to develop its military power. At this point, tariffs play a strategic role.
Since 2018, the US has been engaged in a tariff war with China, and China’s Most Favored Nation status is effectively null and void. On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration announced a review of the 301 tariffs on China for a period of four years, further increasing the tariffs on $18 billion worth of products from China, including imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars on top of the existing 301 tariffs.
Not only the US but the EU has also wielded the tariff weapon against China. On October 4, 2023, the European Commission issued a notice stating that it had launched its own countervailing duty investigation into pure electric vehicles originating from China. In accordance with the rules for temporary safeguard measures such as introducing tariffs or quotas, the European Commission is expected to announce the results of the countervailing duty investigation nine months later (in early July 2024). According to major international media reports, the EU’s decision to impose additional tariffs will be announced on June 10, 2024. Experts estimate that the tariff rates on Chinese electric cars will increase by 15% to 25% on top of the current 10% standard tariff. Furthermore, the final tariff rate will be determined by how much subsidies manufacturers receive from the government and their level of cooperation with the EU Commission’s investigation. The South China Morning Post reported that the European Commission is expected to impose temporary tariffs on Chinese-made electric cars starting from July 4.
Following the US’s new tariffs on China, on May 17, Canada’s Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development, Wu Fengyi, indicated during a phone interview that Canada was considering whether to raise tariffs on electric cars manufactured in China. Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland, told reporters that China is deliberately creating overproduction and stated that the government cannot allow Canadian industry to be destroyed by China’s overproduction and excess capacity. Canadian auto manufacturers, steel producers, and unions are urging Canadian lawmakers to impose tariffs on excessive production of Chinese goods and warning Canada of being seen as a weak partner to China by the US government (the US is imposing a 102.5% tariff on Chinese electric cars, while Canada currently levies only a small 6% tariff on Chinese cars). Canada has the USMCA agreement with the US and must align its tariff policy with that of the US. The agreement will be reviewed in 2026. The US is also warning Canada not to let China exploit loopholes in the USMCA to bypass Canada and enter the US.
Mexico, unlike Canada, has been more proactive in cooperating with the US on new tariffs against China. Mexico is also an emerging industrialized country, a G20 member, a neighbor to the US, and has a free trade agreement with the US (USMCA). As the US promotes global supply chain restructuring, near-shoring, and friend-shoring, Mexico has been reaping significant benefits.
On August 15, 2023, Mexico announced an increase in import tariffs from the next day on products including steel and aluminum, with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25%.
In March of this year, following the conclusion of an anti-dumping investigation, Mexico imposed tariffs of 3.68% to 12.35% on steel balls and nails imported from China, as well as enforcing a 31% interim compensation tax.
On April 22, Mexico announced the “Regulation on the Amendment of General Import and Export Tariffs,” imposing temporary tariffs of 5% to 50% on 544 types of products, including steel, aluminum, textiles, wood, shoes, plastics, chemicals, paper, and paperboard, ceramics, glass, electrical materials, transportation materials, musical instruments, and furniture. The new regulation took effect immediately and will last for two years. On the day the new tariffs came into effect, Mexico’s Economy Minister, Raquel Buenrostro, stated at an official event, “We see many cheap imported products replacing domestic textiles, shoes, and other products at very low prices. These underreported imports come from countries that do not have trade agreements with Mexico.” Although she did not specifically mention China, most of the imports are from Asia.
85% of China’s exports to Mexico have been directly impacted by the new tariffs. While part of this is to align with the US (to prevent Chinese products from entering the US through Mexico), it’s also due to Mexico’s long-standing trade deficit with China. According to Chinese data, in 2023, bilateral trade between China and Mexico amounted to $100.2 billion, with China exporting $81.471 billion to Mexico and importing $18.754 billion from Mexico, resulting in a trade deficit of $62.717 billion for Mexico. With Mexico looking to absorb the global supply chain restructuring pushed by the US, develop its domestic manufacturing industry, and actively compete with China, tariffs become a necessary tool in the face of this significant deficit.
Like India, another “BRICS country” alongside China, India’s GDP in 2023 already ranks fifth globally, with the Modi government focusing on developing the manufacturing sector to catch up with China. In the US-China competition, India is one of the largest beneficiaries. Moreover, since 2020, due to territorial disputes, Sino-Indian relations have significantly deteriorated. India has engaged in a tariff war with China. For instance, starting from December 2021, India imposed anti-dumping duties on seven types of products from China; on March 14, 2024, India decided to impose a five-year anti-dumping duty on printed circuit boards (PCBs) originating or imported from mainland China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; and so on.
In summary, faced with China’s global low-cost dumping to absorb excess capacity and intense competition between the US and China, both Western countries and some emerging industrialized countries are wielding the tariff weapon against China. The tariff war has cast a shadow over China. China’s international economic situation will only worsen, dealing another blow to its economy.