The United States recently announced a military sale to Taiwan worth about 300 million US dollars. At the recently concluded 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin stated that the Indo-Pacific is a key focus area for U.S. global defense, emphasizing that “only with Asian security can the United States be secure,” and warning China not to threaten Taiwan. The Chinese Defense Minister issued threats, stating that those advocating for Taiwan’s “separation” will meet a grim end.
On June 5, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced a new round of military sales to Taiwan, totaling around 300 million dollars, primarily consisting of F-16 fighter jet spare parts and maintenance components. Taiwan expressed gratitude, noting that this will help bolster its independent defense capabilities against China.
During the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue, Taiwan’s security issues became a core topic and a focal point of the U.S.-China rivalry. The dialogue concluded on June 2, with the U.S. taking clear actions to fulfill its commitment to maintaining Indo-Pacific security, marking the latest development in U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin’s “New Convergence in the Indo-Pacific.” The irreconcilable U.S.-China confrontation has entered a new phase.
Secretary of Defense Austin emphasized the U.S.’s firm commitment to Indo-Pacific security, citing the region’s shift into a “new era of security.” He highlighted the need to strengthen alliances and networks to counter China’s expanding military power and influence, reiterating that “only with Asian security can the United States be secure.”
Austin stressed that the U.S. prioritizes the Indo-Pacific region despite historic conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. He reiterated that the U.S. remains deployed in the region for its security, emphasizing, “We’re all in, we’re not going anywhere.”
The U.S. and its Indo-Pacific partners have intensified security cooperation over the past three years, forming a robust network to counter China’s external expansion along the first island chain.
Observers believe that the likelihood of China militarily invading Taiwan within the next three years is high. The U.S. is actively preparing for this scenario through dialogue and collaboration with allies to deter Chinese aggression.
During the dialogue, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun claimed that the Taiwan issue is a core interest of China and criticized the U.S. for interfering in Taiwan and fueling “Taiwan independence” through arms sales and legislation.
Austin and Dong’s speeches underscored their respective positions and principles, delineating their red lines and highlighting the core issues of contemporary geopolitics.
In a significant development, Austin and Dong held a meeting during the Shangri-La Dialogue, marking the first face-to-face talks between the two defense ministers in 18 months since 2022.
The Shangri-La Dialogue is viewed as a battlefield for U.S.-China military showdowns. Over the past three years, China has changed its defense ministers three times, revealing turmoil in the Chinese military’s top leadership due to power struggles. The continuity of China’s policies and the authority of its defense minister have attracted attention from the U.S. and the international community.
Following the meeting, the Pentagon spokesperson expressed concerns about recent Chinese provocations near Taiwan and reiterated that China should not exploit Taiwan’s political transition to engage in coercive actions.
Austin affirmed that the U.S. will continue conducting safe and responsible activities within the bounds of international law, emphasizing the importance of respecting freedom of navigation in international waters, particularly in the South China Sea.
Political commentator Lan Shu stated that the U.S.’s core strategy for global peace and security centers around Indo-Pacific security. He emphasized that China’s threat to Taiwan poses the region’s biggest challenge, as controlling Taiwan is the first step in China’s global expansion strategy.
At the heart of the U.S.-China rivalry lies the clash between democracy and authoritarianism, with Taiwan serving as the frontier in the battle between these ideologies. Therefore, the U.S. aims to strengthen its presence along the first island chain to safeguard freedom and democracy.
Dong Jun’s threat that anyone attempting to separate Taiwan from China will face severe consequences poses a heightened level of threat compared to his predecessor’s statements, raising concerns and sparking discussions.
According to Lan Shu, Dong Jun’s hawkish rhetoric is part of China’s established aggressive diplomatic approach aimed primarily at the U.S. and the Western world, attempting to constrain through forceful challenges.
Moreover, Lan Shu noted that China utilizes threats and provocations to maintain its version of “peace” with neighboring countries. China’s actions, including missile tests near Japan’s exclusive economic zone and military incursions across the Taiwan Strait, reveal a pattern of coercion for “stability.”
Commentator Xu Ke suggested that in this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Dong Jun moderated his stance except when addressing the Taiwan Strait issue. Xu believed that Dong’s rhetoric was intended as a warning to Taiwan while also catering to a domestic audience, portraying the performance as a message to Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Shangri-La Dialogue this year focused on the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed a strong stance against China at the dialogue, emphasizing that any resolution to the South China Sea disputes must be based on international law, with the Philippines standing firm on territorial sovereignty.
When asked about potential Philippine casualties from Chinese aggression, which might cross a “red line,” Marcos responded unequivocally, indicating that it would be tantamount to an act of war. This aligns with his previous statements following a trilateral summit with the U.S. and Japan, where he mentioned invoking the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty if Philippine soldiers were attacked.
In response to these developments, Pentagon conversations reaffirmed the ironclad nature of the U.S.-Philippines defense treaty, emphasizing a commitment to dialogue to prevent any unwarranted incidents.
Previously, then-U.S. Indo-Pacific commander John C. Aquilino explicitly stated that if Chinese aggression in the South China Sea leads to Philippine military casualties, the Philippines could invoke the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
A Chinese military spokesperson, however, accused the Philippines of warmongering, stating that the death of a single individual should not be used as a pretext for war.
Xu Ke argued that Dong Jun must project a tougher image regarding the South China Sea and the Philippines but noted that the Philippines’ firm stance has seemingly deterred Chinese escalation.