In the European Parliament, a larger (right-wing) group could empower us to change all these (left-wing) European regulations, so that we – in our respective national parliaments – have more power to govern ourselves,” said Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch right-wing party, Party for Freedom (PVV), regarding the European Parliament elections that began on June 6.
Wilders, who founded and leads the PVV, became the largest party in the Dutch national parliament in last November’s elections, causing a significant stir in Europe. Now, he hopes to continue this momentum in the European Parliament elections, setting a new tone for most EU issues – shifting power back from the EU to the individual member states, giving them more autonomy, especially concerning illegal immigration, crime, and economic issues.
This European Parliament election seems to be progressing in the direction Wilders hopes for, with rising living costs, discontent among farmers, a large influx of economic refugees and illegal immigrants to Europe, and ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East. Right-wing forces are expected to gain more seats in the elections, possibly entering into a governing coalition in the new European Commission, further pushing EU policies to the right.
Now, let’s summarize various aspects of this European Parliament election.
Established in 1958, the European Parliament has held direct elections since 1979, with a complete reshuffle every five years. This is the 10th European Parliament election and the first election after Brexit.
The voting for this year’s election took place from June 6 to 9 (Thursday to Sunday) in 27 EU member states. Initial results will be announced after all polling stations across member states close on the evening of June 9.
Some countries conducted early voting, like Sweden starting from May 22, while others shortened the voting period, including Ireland and the Czech Republic starting on June 7 (Friday), and some countries only voted over the weekend.
In terms of population size, the European Parliament election is the world’s second-largest democratic event this year, following the general elections in India.
The total population of the EU’s 27 member states is around 450 million, with approximately 350 million European citizens eligible to vote.
Most countries set 18 as the minimum voting age, but some have lowered this age limit, such as Greece allowing 17-year-olds to vote, and Germany, Malta, Austria, and Belgium allowing 16-year-olds to vote.
The minimum age for participating in elections is also set at 18 in most countries, but some countries have raised this age requirement, with Italy and Greece requiring candidates to be at least 25 years old to run for office.
The number of seats each member state holds in the European Parliament depends on its population size. Smaller countries like Malta, Luxembourg, and Cyprus each have 6 seats, while Germany, the most populous EU nation, has 96 seats.
In the last election in 2019, the European Parliament elected 751 members. Following Brexit in 2020, the number of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) decreased to 705, with some of the UK’s 73 seats being redistributed to other member states.
After this year’s election, the European Parliament will add 15 more members, bringing the total to 720 MEPs.
European Parliament elections typically do not see high voter turnout. Since reaching a 62% turnout in the first elections in 1979, this number has steadily declined.
However, public interest started to rise noticeably in the 2019 European Parliament elections, with a voter turnout of 50.7%, 8 percentage points higher than in 2014.
The latest survey conducted in April by the Eurobarometer, which regularly assesses European public opinion, showed a significant increase in interest in this year’s European Parliament elections. Approximately 71% of Europeans indicated they plan to vote.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict for over two years has been a major concern for European citizens, making defense and national security crucial campaign issues in this year’s European Parliament elections. At the national level, defense and security issues in the EU ranked as the top public concern in nine member states.
Other prominent issues include the economy, employment, poverty, immigration, public health, climate change, and the future of Europe.
The European Parliament is the only EU institution directly elected by European citizens, although it does not have the power to initiate legislation. However, it serves as a real counterbalance to the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission.
The European Parliament votes on laws related to a wide range of issues such as banking regulations, agriculture, fisheries, defense, security, justice, immigration, and climate. It also votes on the EU budget (including aid to Ukraine), which is crucial for implementing EU policies.
All nominations for the European Commission require approval from the European Parliament. The European Commission functions as the EU’s government, with its commissioners acting as ministers. The European Parliament can also compel the entire Commission to resign through a resolution supported by a two-thirds majority vote.
Members of various political parties from EU member states can participate in European Parliament elections. Once elected as MEPs, most members join transnational political groups within the European Parliament.
As of the last plenary session in April, the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) held 176 seats out of the total 705 in the European Parliament, making it the largest political group in the EU.
The current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, comes from the EPP, and she is expected to retain her position even after these elections.
The second-largest political group in the European Parliament is the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 139 seats. The pro-business European Conservatives and Reformists (RE) hold 102 seats, securing the third position. The Alliance of Greens and Regionalists, composed of Green parties and regionalist parties, holds 72 seats and ranks fourth.
The current European Parliament is governed by a broad coalition of EPP, S&D, and RE.
Left-wing political groups advocate for a more unified approach in the EU in everything from climate change to defense, believing that individual countries’ voices are too weak on the global stage. Right-wing political groups call for power to be reclaimed from the EU and for greater sovereignty, some even proposing complete EU exit similar to Brexit. The positions of center-left, centrist, and center-right groups generally fall within this spectrum.
According to the Associated Press analysis, it is expected that following these elections, EPP and S&D will maintain their stability, while the RE and Green party alliance may suffer losses and lose their seats.
The two right-wing political groups in the European Parliament – the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) – are projected to gain more seats, possibly collectively comprising a quarter of the total seats in the European Parliament after the elections, surpassing the RE and Green party alliance to become the third and fourth largest political groups in the European Parliament.
However, these two right-wing groups, ECR and ID, also have many differences, and it’s unclear to what extent they will cooperate and influence the EU agenda after winning.
Polls suggest that right-wing populist parties could collectively secure one-third of the vote across the EU.
Once the power dynamics of each political group are determined post-election, MEPs will elect a Parliament President during the first plenary session from July 16 to 19. Following weeks of negotiations, they may then nominate a new President of the European Commission in September based on proposals from member states.
In 2019, von der Leyen narrowly secured the Presidency of the European Commission (383 votes in favor, 327 votes against, 22 abstentions). MEPs will also consider the opinions of the Commission President nominee, and then proceed to vote for approval.
Von der Leyen is believed to have a good chance of re-election, but she still needs ample support from key leaders. She has hinted at potential cooperation with right-wing political groups based on the election results, which has irked some left-wing MEPs.
The election results are expected to have significant implications for the EU across global climate policies, defense, immigration, economics, and geopolitical relations with China and the US.
Over the past five years since the last European Parliament elections, three EU countries have been led by right-wing parties: Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands. The position of right-wing parties in countries like Germany, France, Belgium, and Sweden has been steadily rising, garnering increasing public support across the continent.
Starting from June 6 (Thursday), the Netherlands began voting for the European Parliament elections, with PVV leader Wilders being among the first high-ranking Dutch politicians to cast his vote.
After voting in The Hague, Wilders addressed his supporters through the media, saying, “You need to have a strong influence on the European Parliament and ensure that we can change the guidelines in Europe when necessary so that we can govern our own immigration and asylum policies.”
In the EU’s founding member country, the Netherlands has long been staunch supporters of the EU. However, in recent years, Dutch citizens have started expressing dissatisfaction with the EU. While most still believe the Netherlands should remain in the EU, an increasing number feel the country should have more autonomy.
Wilders had previously called for the Netherlands to leave the EU like Britain, but during this European Parliament election campaign, he did not mention “Nexit.” Instead, he urged voters to support the PVV’s entry into the European Parliament to effect change from within. Many right-wing parties in other EU countries have similar plans.
According to Politico, tracking polls on the European Parliament elections show a sharp rightward turn in the Parliament, with the number of right-wing MEPs potentially surpassing the count of the center-right European People’s Party led by von der Leyen. The future ruling coalitions remain uncertain.
Fox News reports that voters across the 27 EU countries may elect a European Parliament that is historically the first to be predominantly right-wing in the coming five years, indicating dissatisfaction with traditional parties’ inability to address economic problems and rampant illegal immigration.
Alan Mendoza, Executive Director of the London-based Henry Jackson Society, told Fox News, “It’s a reflection, a reaction to what’s happening in Europe right now. People are turning to parties that have answers on this basis, that these (right-wing) parties come along and say they are going to solve these problems and they’re being rewarded with votes.”
Political observers in Europe and the US emphasize that voters are demanding “strong action” on the illegal immigration crisis, spanning Europe. The long-standing illegal immigration crisis in Europe, coupled with social and economic issues, has made European citizens feel Europe is in decline, propelling the soaring popularity of right-wing parties.
Mendoza stated, “The sense of completely porous European borders and the idea from European elites that (illegals) should come to Europe is having an effect. For ordinary Europeans, this puts pressure on public services like housing, health care, job opportunities, among others. This reflects a broader recognition that Europe’s best days may be behind it, leading voters to embrace parties they might not have considered voting for 10 to 20 years ago.”
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