The three-day Shangri-La Dialogue concluded on June 2, with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun issuing harsh words towards Taiwan, stating phrases like “crushed to pieces and perish by oneself.” Experts analyzed that this is both a form of intimidation and a familiar tactic used by the Chinese Communist Party in psychological warfare.
Since 2011, when the Chinese Communist Party first sent its Defense Minister to participate in the dialogue, the level of participation has fluctuated. However, after 2019, the level of participation was once again raised to the Defense Minister level. Chinese Defense Ministers usually bring along some major generals and lieutenant generals to the dialogue, where they question the U.S. Defense Secretary and express opinions to the media, criticizing the U.S. and so on.
Following the U.S.-China defense ministerial meeting on May 31, Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department of China’s Central Military Commission, Jing Jianfeng, criticized the United States during a press conference on June 1, stating that the Asia-Pacific region is a stage of peaceful development, while the U.S.’s “Indo-Pacific strategy” adopts a Cold War mindset and zero-sum game, creating a closed exclusive “club.”
Jing Jianfeng further stated that the Taiwan issue is the most important and sensitive core issue between China and the U.S., emphasizing that “Taiwan independence” equals war.
During Defense Minister Dong Jun’s keynote speech on June 1, he issued strong threats towards Taiwan, stating, “Whoever dares to split Taiwan from China will be crushed to pieces and perish by themselves,” emphasizing that any separatist behavior is self-deception. Dong Jun also mentioned the “three non-permissibles,” without directly criticizing the U.S.
Since being appointed as Chinese Defense Minister in December last year, Dong Jun made his first appearance on the international stage this year. Compared to his predecessors Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, Dong Jun’s rhetoric was more aggressive and provocative.
Dong Jun even refused to answer questions related to the Middle East and Ukraine during the Q&A session, continuing to focus on Taiwan-related issues and stating, “The Taiwan issue is the core issue of our core interests and must be addressed first.”
A Reuters report cited an unnamed U.S. official as saying that Dong Jun’s remarks contained no new insights, stating that every year, they deliver a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue that contradicts the reality of the coercive activities of the Chinese military in the region.
Rory Medcalf, Director of the National Security College at the Australian National University, posted on X platform, saying, “Defense Minister Dong Jun’s warning at the Shangri-La Dialogue is the most threatening speech we have heard from China, declaring a ‘resolute’ military action against ‘fanatical’ forces in Taiwan.”
In response to Dong Jun’s comments, a spokesperson for the Presidential Office of Taiwan, Li Wen, stated on the 2nd that Chinese officials misinterpreted Taiwan’s government stance and even made threats of military action, reflecting their irrational remarks that fail to gain international recognition.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council emphasized on the 3rd that Chinese officials’ remarks are provocative and irrational, openly threatening the use of force on international occasions, violating the basic spirit of the UN Charter of “not using or threatening to use force.”
Since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 led to the termination of the U.S.-China defense ministerial talks, this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue marked the first meeting between the U.S. and Chinese Defense Ministers in two years. With Dong Jun’s recent provocative remarks, it may be related to Taiwan’s newly elected President Lai Ching-te taking office on May 20th.
Just a day after Lai Ching-te’s inauguration, on May 21st, Xinhua News Agency released an article titled “Those who play with fire will get burned themselves,” stating that on the path of ‘Taiwan independence,’ Lai Ching-te has surpassed Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Tsai Ing-wen, exhibiting an unprecedented ‘independence’ stance.
On May 31st, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, in a meeting with Dong Jun, urged China not to use Taiwan’s political transition as an excuse to take coercive measures.
Shen Mingshi, a researcher and director of the Taiwan Institute for Defense and Security, told Epoch Times that Dong Jun’s tough talk has a context and background, related to President Lai Ching-te’s inaugural speech. Initially, focusing on President Lai’s speech, the response from the Chinese side was to echo and criticize it, including the Taiwan Strait exercises.
“Dong Jun is the newly appointed Defense Minister, not a member of the Central Military Commission or a State Councilor. The attitude of his predecessor Li Shangfu was relatively soft and gentle. In this situation, participating in the Shangri-La Dialogue and facing the U.S. Defense Secretary directly, he hopes Xi Jinping will promote him, so he will definitely not show weakness.”
Shen Mingshi analyzed that in such a situation, we must analyze who the targeted audience is. First and foremost, it would be Xi Jinping, to see what he said on an international stage for the first time. Secondly, it’s the United States, hoping to highlight some words that reveal the true intentions of the Chinese Communist Party. Lastly, it’s Taiwan, specifically in response to President Lai’s speech.
“We don’t know how Xi Jinping will perceive it, but at least he won’t pull him down immediately for being weak. Dong Jun could become the fourth member of the Central Military Commission at the Third Plenum and may become a State Councillor. However, for the U.S. and Taiwan, Dong Jun’s tough talk, with phrases like ‘crushed to pieces,’ ‘perish by oneself,’ won’t have any effect. Taiwan’s stock market didn’t drop but rose instead.”
Rong-wei Lai, Executive Director of Taiwan Inspiration Association, stated that Dong Jun’s tough talk is a typical deterrent. Regardless of whether they have the capability, it’s more of a psychological tactic to intimidate, holding a sword in front of someone to scare them, which is definitely a form of deterrence.
“I personally believe it’s a bluff because China currently lacks the military strength to attack Taiwan. Internal issues may currently be plaguing them. Especially last year, the military encountered significant problems, even clashing within the Rocket Force. This is also a way to tell their domestic audience that they are defending ‘national’ interests when facing survival pressures among the Chinese people, portraying an external enemy to divert attention while creating an enemy abroad.”
The Shangri-La Dialogue took place against the backdrop of heightened tension in the entire Asia-Pacific region. Apart from the Taiwan Strait, China also claims sovereignty over the East and South China Seas. Chinese warships and aircraft patrol international waters and airspace, harassing and disrupting the maritime activities of neighboring countries, contributing to regional tensions.
However, Dong Jun stated in his speech that “China advocates peace,” while simultaneously criticizing the U.S., stating, “We won’t allow regional geostrategic conflicts, Cold War, or hot wars to be brought into the region.”
Shen Mingshi stated that Dong Jun’s speech denounced U.S. imperialism, non-adherence to international law, and engaging in exclusive circles. In reality, he talked about China itself but boldly criticized the U.S. Dong Jun’s speech actually invited criticism, and the scholars and officials present didn’t believe it, no matter how eloquent or grandiose it sounded.
Shen Mingshi said that if President Lai’s speech was the main reason for the Chinese military’s actions, but President Lai’s speech didn’t include any pro-independence statements, maintaining the status quo and the fact that both sides of the strait are separate entities, something President Tsai also mentioned. If this becomes a reason, it’s like the Chinese Communist Party slandering others and concocting reasons, making its opponents bear external blame.
“Taiwan isn’t provoking a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan has no intention of attacking the mainland or taking provocative actions towards independence. All of these are just excuses from China.”
Shen Mingshi expressed that China views the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and East China Sea as its inland waters, bullying the countries in the region. These countries are taking precautionary measures rather than provoking or attacking China to prevent conflicts. The real cause of potential conflicts in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea is the bullying behavior of China against its neighbors, using might to overpower the smaller states.
“China uses historical revisionism to claim sovereignty over the South China Sea. If every country uses historical revisionism, the entire region will descend into chaos. Adherence to international law should be a priority. In his speech, Dong Jun kept emphasizing adherence to international law, but China is, in fact, the main violator of international law.”
Regarding the collaboration of democratic countries, led by the United States, to assist Taiwan and construct a multilateral deterrence network, Shen Mingshi believes that while no one wants a war, the most reliable and stable way to avoid war is to possess an effective deterrence capability. This ensures that the opponent and the enemy understand that they must bear significant costs if conflict or war ensues.
“If one seeks peace or constantly concedes, it may only lead to temporary peace or even peace under surrender or occupation, likely eliminating all fundamental values such as human rights and democratic institutions that have been difficult to establish.”
He further stated that those who refrain from conflict with China may be doing so based on personal interests. But do you want your future generations to live under a Communist system? When faced with Communist coercion, bullying, or aggression, wouldn’t you stand up to resist for your descendants? It’s a straightforward logic.
“If one only considers the harm that a war may cause, it is better to think about how to unite with like-minded democratic countries to make China bear significant consequences or costs, in a way that deters China from rashly invading.”
China often uses global platforms like Davos Forum, various global summit mechanisms, and regional international platforms to promote its own rhetoric, influencing public perception and fostering dissatisfaction with the current system, thereby widening social polarization and confrontation.
Rong-wei Lai stated that China’s international speeches are not just for the U.S. or Europe but are also aimed at the global audience. Naturally, they are also meant for internal consumption in Taiwan. If they can sow discord within Taiwan, that’s even better. It’s also for internal consumption in China and even for smaller third-world countries, as these nations are not powerful and have internal racial issues, while disliking intervention from other major powers.
“China often perceives its adversaries as not completely solid, so they will exploit these opportunities to advance, gradually progressing in unfavorable situations like cutting a sausage. Its strategy involves wooing those that can be wooed, distinguishing between main enemies and ancillary enemies. After defeating the primary enemy, the former secondary enemy becomes the new main enemy.”
China now utilizes rural areas to counter cities, southern countries to counter northern countries, and third-world countries to challenge industrial and democratic ones. It also uses localities to attack central authorities, civilians against the government, and even the opposition party against itself.
Shen Mingshi stated that through such international platforms, China not only engages in psychological warfare but also disseminates the Communist Party’s ideology and values, promoting the so-called Beijing Consensus, from the Belt and Road Initiative to subsequent global development initiatives, global security initiatives, and global civilization initiatives.
“In these forums, China’s rhetoric may sound grandiose and beautiful, but whether China will implement them is another matter. For example, China previously said it would act as a coordinator between Ukraine and Russia, but now China says they will safeguard common values alongside Russia. Countries that align with China must bear the consequences of many policies, such as Honduras severing ties with Taiwan, believing that if they establish diplomatic relations with China, the prices for shrimp sold to China would be much lower, at least half the price sold to Taiwan.”