The Chinese Communist Party previously announced that the Third Plenum would be held in July, but did not disclose the specific date. On June 4th, a Hong Kong media article speculated that the Plenum is likely to take place in the first half of July.
At a Politburo meeting on April 30th, it was announced that the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party would convene the Third Plenum this July. Traditionally, the Third Plenum should have taken place before the end of last year, but it has been delayed.
However, as of now, the specific date of the meeting has not been announced by the Chinese Communist Party. On June 4th, the Hong Kong newspaper “Ming Pao” published an article estimating that the 20th Central Committee’s Third Plenum is most likely to be held in the first half of July.
The article analyzed that historically, there has been a 2-3 month gap between the announcement and the actual convening of the most recent three Central Committee meetings. For example, the Fourth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee announced on August 30, 2019, was opened on October 28; the Fifth Plenum announced on July 30, 2020, was opened on October 26; and the Sixth Plenum announced on August 31, 2021, was eventually opened on November 8.
Given that the Third Plenum is scheduled to convene in July this year, considering that late July is a critical time for flood prevention in mainland China – known as the “start of the rainy season” in northern China from late July to early August, and with the Paris Olympics opening on July 26, which will attract global attention – it is estimated that the four-day Third Plenum is most likely to be held in the first half of July.
As for the agenda of the meeting, the article suggests that enterprise reform may take center stage. On May 23, Chinese leader Xi Jinping presided over a symposium with enterprises and experts in Jinan, Shandong, which was seen as setting the tone for the Third Plenum.
The article noted that before a Central Committee meeting, it is unusual for the party to hold discussions with business sectors and economic experts. Xi Jinping’s emphasis on reforms, particularly advancing economic system reform at the symposium, held in Shandong province known for its state-owned enterprises, indicates that the “further comprehensive deepening of reform” to be rolled out at the Third Plenum would focus on enterprise reform, especially reform within state-owned enterprises.
The Third Plenum is also expected to address personnel issues. The article mentioned that the qualifications of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu as Central Committee members may be revoked, and current Defense Minister Dong Jun could be appointed as a member of the Central Military Commission.
Earlier on May 1, a Radio France Internationale article speculated that besides Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, personnel arrangements may also involve Xi Jinping’s wife, Peng Liyuan.
The article stated that Qin Gang and Li Shangfu may be removed from the Central Committee in some way. Regarding the reasons for their potential removal, experts believe it should not be directly linked to their previous close relationship with Xi Jinping. Instead, the removal could serve other underlying personnel changes of significance. Earlier, Peng Liyuan’s high-profile research activities in Hunan province raised questions about whether she would assume an important role. Some analysts suggest that Xi Jinping’s concerns over security matters are particularly high. Despite holding power comparable to Mao Zedong and being surrounded by close aides, the fewer truly trustworthy individuals around him, the more isolated he may feel. From this perspective, giving Peng Liyuan a significant role at the right time is not out of the question.