On June 2nd, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun issued a stern warning that anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will be crushed and meet their doom.
Dong Jun’s remarks reminded me of his predecessor Li Shangfu’s tough words at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
Last year, on June 4th, Li Shangfu made his first major speech after being appointed as a State Councilor, member of the Central Military Commission, and Minister of National Defense by the National People’s Congress. Li Shangfu stated, “If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese military will not hesitate, fear any opponent, and regardless of the cost, will resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Li Shangfu also specifically mentioned the United States, stating that a violent conflict between China and the US would be a “pain the world cannot bear.”
When reporting Li Shangfu’s speech, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) titled it “Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu Sends Comprehensive Tough Signals at the Shangri-La Dialogue.”
However, just over two months after Li Shangfu made these stern remarks in Singapore, in late August last year, he suddenly “disappeared.” Journalists from around the world were asking, “Where is Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu?”
The National People’s Congress kept delaying any official announcement until October 24th last year when they finally announced the removal of Li Shangfu from his positions as State Councilor, member of the Central Military Commission, and Minister of National Defense. Li Shangfu became the shortest-serving Minister of National Defense in the 75-year history of the People’s Republic of China.
Why was Li Shangfu dismissed? The National People’s Congress did not disclose any information publicly. In reality, even though the National People’s Congress remained silent, most people believed that “Xi Jinping’s cronies betrayed him,” and Li Shangfu was also implicated in serious corruption.
Following the 19th Communist Party Congress, corruption cases within the military escalated, continuing the pattern of severe corruption cases involving over 170 generals since the 18th Congress convened by Xi. However, the corruption cases within the military after the 19th Congress had a greater impact on Xi because these senior officers were personally promoted by him after his stringent anti-corruption campaigns; they were considered part of the “Xi’s faction.”
Xi Jinping’s trusted aides turned into a “nest of tigers” where they started turning on each other, causing unrest within and outside the military. Today, as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, standing at the peak of power, Xi Jinping looks around and wonders, who can he truly trust?
Zhang Yuxia is the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, second only to Xi Jinping.
Li Shangfu was one of the most important confidants of Zhang Yuxia. When Zhang Yuxia was the Minister of Equipment Development, Li Shangfu was his deputy. After being promoted by Xi during the 19th Congress as the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Li Shangfu was subsequently promoted to Minister of Equipment Development. Following Zhang Yuxia’s retention as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission during the 20th Congress, Li Shangfu was promoted to Minister of National Defense.
When Xi initiated investigations into the corruption issues within the Equipment Development Department, a line was drawn – only investigating issues since October 2017, during Li Shangfu’s tenure as the Minister of Equipment Development, but not those happening under Zhang Yuxia. However, investigating Li Shangfu and his associates did not mean they were not also looking into Zhang Yuxia and his team.
Shortly after the 20th Congress concluded, a power struggle erupted between Xi Jinping and Zhang Yuxia. Can Xi truly trust Zhang Yuxia? Can Zhang Yuxia truly be loyal to Xi Jinping?
In early May, photos circulated…
(continues in a similar manner with further detailed analysis and insights into the political and military landscape in China)