A recent poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos shows that the support for President Joe Biden among non-college-educated voters in the United States is on the decline. This group comprises a significant number of voters, including African Americans, Hispanic women, young voters, and suburban women. This indicates that the upcoming rematch between Biden and Trump will be more intense.
According to Reuters, an analysis of about 24,000 registered voters surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos in 2020 and 2024 revealed that Biden’s support among non-four-year-degree holders has dropped by 10 percentage points compared to his 2020 campaign.
The poll suggests that this decline could lead to a more evenly matched competition between Biden and Trump.
Reuters examined responses from over 8,000 registered voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from March to May 2024, as well as responses from over 16,000 registered voters during the same period in 2020.
The poll was completed before a New York jury found Trump guilty of trying to conceal hush money payments to a porn star on Thursday, May 30.
Since early March this year, Biden’s support among non-college-educated registered voters has decreased from 42% in 2020 to 32%, a 10-point drop. Trump’s share among non-college-educated voters has seen a slight increase from 42% to 44%.
During the same period, the proportion of non-college-educated voters indicating a possibility of voting for a third-party candidate or not voting at all has also slightly increased.
Biden’s support among college-educated voters has slightly declined by 1 percentage point, while Trump has dropped by 3 points. The percentage of college graduates indicating they may not vote or are considering a third-party candidate has slightly increased.
In the segment of voters from households with an annual income below $50,000, Biden’s support has decreased by 14 points to 33%, while Trump’s has increased by 5 points to 40%. Among voters with an annual income of over $100,000, Trump’s support has dropped by 4 points to 38%, and Biden’s has decreased by 2 points to 43%.
Biden’s support has also declined among other demographic groups that played crucial roles in his 2020 victory.
Among voters aged 18-29, Biden’s support has dropped by 11 points to 37%. Trump’s support in this group has slightly risen to 30%, while the undecided or not voting proportion has increased slightly.
In Hispanic women, Biden’s support has decreased from 58% in 2020 to 39%, a 19-point drop. Compared to 2020, the proportion of those undecided, not voting, or leaning towards other candidates including Trump has slightly increased. Biden’s support among Hispanic men has remained stable.
Biden’s support has declined by 15 points among Black men and women.
Among suburban women, Biden’s support has fallen by 7 points to 42%, closer to Trump’s 34%. Compared to 2020, a larger proportion of them may choose other candidates or not vote at all.
The accuracy of the poll results is estimated to be within a range of 2 to 6 percentage points.
The poll analysis found that not all disillusioned Biden voters have switched to Trump. Instead, many seem to be surrendering, feeling discouraged about their previous choices and uncertain about what they will do in the November elections.
Mary Jo McConnell, 67, from Elba, New York, who supported Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, now feels disappointed in both parties. She stated, “Neither of them has put forward candidates that I believe are capable of addressing the challenges we face.”
McConnell, whose husband relies on social security benefits, graduated from a two-year college and has worked in a canning factory and salt mines. She has taken on two part-time jobs in retirement to cope with rising prices and mentioned she plans to vote in November but hasn’t decided who.
Economic concerns have led some longtime Biden supporters to at least consider voting for Trump.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, inflation has been a persistent challenge for Biden since taking office. Grocery prices have risen by over 20%, and high interest rates meant significant price increases for consumer goods such as cars and housing.
Julio Miranda, 47, from Canoga Park, California, witnessed inflation affecting his family’s expenses during Biden’s term. As a Mexican-American without a college degree, he believes that the Democratic Party under Biden is out of touch with the middle class and doesn’t consider their interests.
Chris Wells, 47, owner of a gym in Charleston, South Carolina, who voted for Biden in 2020, is now concerned about the 81-year-old president’s age and health. Although he won’t vote for Trump, he is worried about the economy and said, “You don’t know how frustrating it is, it’s terrifying. I might write myself in.”
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from May showed Biden’s support dropping to the lowest level of his presidency, at only 36%, with just over five months until the election.
In response to Reuters’ analysis, Biden’s campaign team stated that national polls don’t provide a comprehensive view of the campaign since voters outside battleground states haven’t seen the campaign’s messaging.
Matt Barreto, a polling expert for Biden’s campaign, emphasized their focus on competitive states and their efforts in outreach, voter contact, and campaigning in those states. He noted that nationwide polls often overshadow the progress made by all campaign teams.
While Biden won by approximately 7 million votes in the 2020 election, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election depends on seven competitive swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Biden won these states with slim margins, and losing too many Biden supporters in these states could lead them to switch their support to Trump.
Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst at the nonpartisan research firm Inside Elections, mentioned that Biden faces challenges in this presidential race as his overall support is declining, particularly among crucial swing-state voters who were instrumental in his 2020 election.
He added, “Any substantial drop will be magnified because the gap between him and Trump is quite narrow in these critical swing states.”
Furthermore, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. entered the race and received double-digit support in many polls, complicating the electoral landscape even further.
(Reference: Reuters)