A recent poll in the United States revealed that approximately 30% of Black voters in seven key swing states stated that they would vote to support Trump’s re-election as President in the November election. This number indicates Trump’s efforts to attract minority voters, including Black voters, have been effective, posing a warning sign for President Biden, who is seeking re-election, as he works to retain the support of Black and Latino voters.
Both Trump and Biden have a significant stake in securing Black voters. Even a small shift in Black voter support from Biden to Trump could potentially alter the election results in closely contested swing states.
With only a little over five months left until the November election, both Trump and Biden are actively implementing strategies to appeal to minority voters, including Black and Latino communities. How are they doing this, and what are the results? Let’s take a closer look at these efforts.
Before the trial on the “hush money” case against Trump began in the Manhattan Criminal Court a few months ago, Trump directly appealed to Black conservative individuals in South Carolina, stating that, like them, he has also faced unfair persecution. This resonated with some Black Americans, historically one of the Democratic Party’s most reliable voting blocs.
Trump has consistently maintained that the “hush money” case and other criminal cases are essentially part of a “political persecution” against him with the aim of preventing his re-election as President.
As these criminal cases progressed, polls indicated that Trump was leading Biden to varying degrees in the seven key swing states. This suggests that undecided voters tend to sympathize with Trump’s plight and hence support him for his courage of resistance.
On May 30 (Thursday), when the Manhattan jury announced that all 34 felony charges against Trump in the “hush money” case had been confirmed, Trump’s campaign fundraising website, WinRed, experienced temporary paralysis due to overwhelming visitor traffic. The Trump campaign spokesperson, Brian Hughes, stated that they received donations from a “record number of supporters.”
In April this year, during a visit to a Chick-fil-A restaurant in Atlanta, Trump was warmly welcomed by Black employees of the fast-food chain. A video released by Trump’s campaign team showed a Black woman named Michaelah Montgomery saying, “I don’t care what the media says about you, Mr. Trump, we support you,” before giving him a hug. The video quickly went viral on social media.
The Chick-fil-A restaurant is located on the way from Atlanta Airport to Fulton County Jail. Trump faces criminal charges of subverting the 2020 election results in Georgia. Last August, Trump took a mugshot in Fulton County Jail, and when he posted the photo online, it also sparked widespread circulation and attracted a significant amount of donations from supporters for his 2024 campaign.
Last week, Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., in an interview with DJ Akademiks, a hip-hop podcaster and online personality, expressed concerns about the fairness of the judicial system, suggesting that if they can do this to Trump, could they do the same to others?
During Black History Month in February, Trump stated that Black voters would increasingly turn to him as he has faced multiple lawsuits. At the annual event of the Black Conservative Coalition in February, Trump said, “I’ve been sued the second, third, fourth time, and many people say that’s why Black people like me because they’ve been so badly hurt and discriminated against that they see me as ‘I’ve been discriminated against’.”
” The Biden administration deliberately chooses to prioritize the interests of illegal immigrants over the interests of the American people. Black voters, just like all other American voter groups, are outraged by this,” said James Blair, political director of Trump’s campaign team to Politico magazine.
Last Thursday (May 23), Trump held a campaign rally in a park in the South Bronx neighborhood of New York City. The rally location was just a few miles away from the Manhattan Criminal Court, where Trump had spent most of his time in the past five weeks.
The South Bronx is predominantly inhabited by Black and other minority populations and historically favors the Democratic Party. Biden won this district by 68% in the 2020 elections.
However, over 20,000 Black and Latino voters attended Trump’s rally, some wearing red hats with Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America Great Again”, or dressed in other Trump-themed attire, a rare sight in the South Bronx.
During his speech, Trump accused the Biden administration of making false promises to Black and Latino voters, pointing out that the administration’s open southern border policy that has led to a influx of illegal immigrants and Biden’s economic policies have been detrimental to the communities of color in the United States.
Trump said, “African Americans are being slaughtered. Hispanic Americans are being slaughtered.”
“Our Black community and Hispanic community, they’re losing out on jobs, on housing, on everything they could possibly lose out on.”
The crowd spontaneously chanted “Build the wall! Build the wall!” and “Send them back”, in response to Trump’s efforts to construct a border wall during his previous presidency and his commitment to continue building the border wall if re-elected in 2024, to block illegal immigrants and deport those who entered the country during the Biden administration.
Indiana Mitchell, a lady from the Dominican Republic, aged 47, who attended the rally, expressed support for Trump’s policy against illegal immigration. She told The New York Times, “I know this country was built by immigrants. I came to this country the right way. I didn’t come through the back (illegal way), I came through the front (legal way).”
Trump, a native New Yorker, officially moved to Florida’s Palm Beach in 2019. During the rally in the South Bronx, Trump condemned the Democratic Party for turning New York into chaos, a place that was once full of opportunities for success.
He said, “New York is the place where you want to make it big. If you want to make it big, you have to be in New York. But sadly, this city is now in decline.”
During the speech, Trump also spent considerable time telling inspirational stories to the minority voters in the South Bronx, including his father’s, Fred Trump’s, rags-to-riches story and his own work experiences.
Fred Trump was a real estate developer in New York, and Trump stated that his father had a passion for work, working tirelessly, even on Sundays, eventually achieving success. Trump inherited the family business and continued to engage in real estate development projects in New York. He recounted his experiences renovating the Central Park skating rink in Manhattan and managing a public golf course in the Bronx.
He told the crowd, “You’ve got to continue to push forward. When your time comes, you’ve got to know that it is your time.”
In February this year, at the Black Republican Association in South Carolina, Trump delivered a similar message, saying, “The message we’re sending to the Black community in this election is going to be very simple. If you want strong borders, secure communities, rising wages, great jobs, fantastic education, and the return of the American Dream, congratulations, you are a Republican.”
On May 29 (Wednesday), Biden held a “Black Voters Support Biden-Harris” gathering in Philadelphia, where he promised Black voters that if re-elected, he would continue to nominate “progressive” individuals to the Supreme Court as Supreme Court Justices in his second presidential term.
While making this promise, Biden also predicted that there would be more than one Supreme Court Justice retirement within the next four years.
He said, “The next President, they’re going to be able to appoint several Justices. I will be damned – excuse my language – if we can’t, in fact, when some Justices retire, and put real progressive judges in place, as we’ve been doing.” He asked, “Tell me, that wouldn’t change your life.”
Currently, three of the nine Supreme Court Justices are around the age of 70. Clarence Thomas, 75, Samuel Alito, 74, both appointed by Republican presidents, are conservative Justices. Sonia Sotomayor, who turns 70 next month, is a “progressive” Justice appointed by President Obama.
During his first term as President, Trump appointed three conservative Justices, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett, solidifying the conservative majority on the current Supreme Court.
In this term, Biden has one opportunity to nominate Ketanji Brown Jackson, a “progressive” Black woman, as a Justice.
Although some members of Biden’s campaign team acknowledge that Biden’s support among Black and Latino voters has declined since 2020, they still believe that the foundation they have built in several key battleground states is strong and robust, making it difficult for Trump to catch up.
They state that they have made unprecedented early investments in paid advertising, including in Black and Latino media. In the field, the Biden campaign has established 150 offices in battleground states, including in Black and Latino communities. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris make stops at these sites during their trips to directly engage with Black or Latino voters and also appear in news media owned by minority communities.
In August last year, Biden’s campaign launched Spanish-language advertisements. They say they have spent $25 million on Latino media since last year, including targeted purchases on Spanish radio stations, La Liga, and ESPN Deportes.
This spring, the Biden campaign also began airing a six-week ad campaign in battleground states, costing $30 million, including in Spanish media and radio stations.
In addition to the Biden team’s expenditures, in April this year, the left-wing non-profit organization, Somos Votantes, and its political action committee, announced plans to spend $57 million to support Biden in winning over Latino voters.
Officials from Biden’s campaign team state that Trump still lacks investments five months away from the election, while Biden has a range of plans to retain the loyalty of Black and Latino voters, ultimately securing victory in the November election.
Quentin Fulks, Biden’s chief deputy campaign manager, said in a statement, “Biden’s campaign team knows the importance of being visible, investing in our communities, and winning every vote. We are making massive, historic investments to attract the voters who will decide this election – just as President Biden has always done to fight and serve our communities historically.”
Sources close to Biden’s campaign team’s strategy for Black voters told NBC that Biden has a compelling story to tell, including the low unemployment rate for Blacks and increasing Black wealth, while Biden has relieved student loan debt, which will boost the economy.
Campaign officials believe their challenge lies in how to permeate these messages to Black voters effectively.
Despite the confidence of Biden’s campaign team in the loyalty of Black and Latino voters, the polling numbers for Biden are not encouraging. Many Black and Latino voters are increasingly worried about the economy under President Biden’s leadership.
While Black voters generally support the policies of the Democratic Party and the Biden administration – such as student debt relief and funding for historically Black colleges – stubborn inflation remains a significant concern for them.
These concerns are particularly severe in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina. In Georgia, Blacks make up approximately 32% of the eligible voting population, while in North Carolina, Blacks make up about 22%. Even in swing states like Pennsylvania where Black voters account for only 10% of eligible voters, any slight dip in Black voter support could potentially lead to Biden losing the election.
A poll conducted by The Wall Street Journal in April on seven swing states found that 30% of Black voters would “definitely or possibly vote” for the former President Trump, in contrast to 12% of all Black male voters nationwide who supported Trump in 2020. This indicates almost a twofold increase in Black support for Trump.
In an NBC poll conducted in April, one-third of Black respondents and two-thirds of Latino respondents said that the economy under Biden’s leadership hadn’t improved. About one-sixth of Black and Latino voters felt that their household income lagged behind the rising cost of living.
This poll also revealed that Black support for Biden is on the decline. Although Biden currently leads Trump among Black voters at 71% to 13%, this figure is lower than his 87% to 12% lead in the 2020 exit polls. There are signs that Black voters are threatening to stay at home and not vote for Biden. By February 2020, 74% of Black voters expressed enthusiasm for Biden’s re-election, but by January 2023, this figure had dropped to 54%.
A recent poll by The Washington Post also found that only 41% of African Americans aged 18 to 39 were certain they would vote this year, compared to 61% in June 2020.
Trump’s campaign team maintains that Black voters are disappointed in Biden’s economic policies and his generous position on illegal immigration.
“President Trump’s outreach to minority voters is simple: he shows up, listens, and explicitly states that if he becomes President again, we will do better, just like four years ago,” said Janiyah Thomas, Trump’s campaign director for Black media, in a statement. “The Biden campaign acknowledged that Trump’s President among Black voters was historically high at 23%, a record high we have not seen in decades.”
An NBC poll in January this year showed that Biden had a 35% approval rating among Latino voters as President. When asked who they would vote for in a rematch between Biden and Trump, 41% of Latino voters supported Biden and 42% supported Trump. In the 2020 election, Biden won 65% of the Latino vote, while Trump won 32%.
Danielle Alvarez, a Trump campaign consultant, said in a statement, “Joe Biden is a weak, failed, and dishonest president, his disastrous policies have done nothing but raise the costs of gas, groceries, and rent, offering no benefits to our communities, making it nearly impossible for people to afford new homes, start new businesses, or save for the future.”