After the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), the centralization of power under CCP leader Xi Jinping has become more apparent, reflecting a prevalent trend of “lying flat” in the Chinese officialdom. In this scenario, the authorities are placing greater emphasis on stability maintenance. Experts warn that extreme centralization of power could lead to the downfall of the regime.
In an article published on May 27 by James Crabtree, a columnist for the US-based magazine “Foreign Policy,” he discussed the challenges of military and diplomatic communication between the US and China. Crabtree pointed out that while the US aims to use bilateral forums to discuss and address substantive issues, China often views them as a mechanism to complain about US behavior. According to a retired senior Chinese military officer who requested anonymity, “Americans can hold meetings and express their opinions. But our system is not like theirs. Our people can only say, ‘Thank you. I will convey your concerns to Beijing.'”
This working model highlighted in “Foreign Policy” reflects that no officials dare to take charge in China, with the ultimate decision-making authority resting solely with top leader Xi Jinping. This echoes the prevalent trend of “lying flat” in the Chinese officialdom. In October last year, the CCP journal published a speech by Xi Jinping aimed at senior cadres, which unusually mentioned the need to prevent “negative attitudes towards lying flat.”
Chen Shimin, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, stated on May 30 that Xi Jinping’s education was disrupted by the Cultural Revolution, with some claiming he only reached an elementary school level, and his doctoral degree has faced numerous doubts. Xi’s knowledge is severely lacking, with a narrow vision. He needs to rely on provided scripts for important speeches, or else his remarks may come across as somewhat ridiculous.
“Being a person with limited knowledge, yet aspiring to become an authoritarian leader like an emperor, those below him adopt a strategy of doing less to avoid making mistakes. The entire bureaucratic system in China is very passive.”
He believes that this approach will lead to the gradual paralysis of the entire administrative system, as historically, no long-lasting autocratic rule has been sustainable. “Hitler, Mussolini, their political lives were very limited, just like the Soviet Union.”
Lai Rongwei, Executive Director of the Taiwan Aspiration Association, mentioned on May 30 that in the US, there is a balance between the ideals of democracy and freedom and pragmatism. Those attending meetings are expected to solve problems as they possess the power to address them. However, the current Chinese system, which had devolved powers to local authorities and enterprises in the 1980s, is now retracting those freedoms and expecting strict obedience, resulting in a trend of ‘lying flat’ and inward collapse.
“China now frequently talks about ‘lying flat’ and ‘inward collapse,’ these terms emerged almost simultaneously a few years ago, signaling the evolution of the times.”
Xi was dubbed the “Chairman of Everything” by foreign media during his first term, overseeing all aspects. In his second term, official statements emphasized his direct involvement in epidemic prevention measures, and as he enters his third term, he continues to personally issue directives on various matters from the economy to people’s livelihoods.
On May 30, Wu Sezhi, a researcher at the Taiwan Strait Policy Association and a consulting committee member of a Taiwanese think tank, mentioned that it is impossible for one person to control all affairs of a nation. Policies require thorough professional analysis, but Xi Jinping has consolidated all decision-making power in his hands since the 18th National Congress.
He believes this demonstrates Xi’s insecurity, as he doesn’t trust anyone and aims to highlight himself. The intense desire for control can lead to recklessness, endangering the country. Xi’s policies have previously caused significant harm to China, especially during the pandemic when his insistence on ‘dynamic clearance’ has negatively impacted the economy.
“This type of system, resembling Lenin’s ‘Party Leadership,’ will ultimately lead to the engulfing of society by the state, the state by the Party, the party by a small group of individuals, and eventually, those individuals being swallowed by personal dictatorship.”
Although Xi recently handed over the chairmanship of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission to Premier Li Keqiang, it is apparent that Li is merely an executor. Li was stripped of his premier press conference during this year’s two sessions. When he visited Germany last year, he refused to take questions at a press conference.
In the history of political struggles within the CCP, usually, the second-ranking official would arouse suspicion from the top leader. When Li Keqiang served as Premier during Xi Jinping’s first two terms, his powers were greatly restricted. Now that Li is in office, devoid of his own economic strategies, he merely executes Xi’s economic plans, essentially serving as Xi’s secretary.
Moreover, these efforts are crippled by the fact that Xi Jinping lacks capabilities, leading to various unusual occurrences in the political scene. Problems have arisen in areas such as diplomacy, national defense, and the Chinese economy. This issue is not solely Xi’s lack of competence but also the incapacity of the leadership team he leads.
Xi Jinping has been emphasizing “centralized unified leadership” across various sectors since 2023, despite the assumption that his power would stabilize in his third term. His directives span from the military to financial sectors and even extend to women’s issues, all emphasizing centralized leadership.
Lai Rongwei mentioned that while China has been introducing numerous new slogans and targets, policies are met with countermeasures, with many officials going through the motions without resolving issues. This country is gradually losing its vitality, and all the unresolved problems will eventually explode.
Regarding Xi’s emphasis on centralized leadership, Wu Sezhi believes it reflects Xi’s conflicting mindset. Previously, before the 20th National Congress, the top CCP echelon operated based on powers being distributed, each handling their responsibilities. However, post-Congress, Xi’s cohort has ascended to the top positions, leading to all decisions being subject to his approval. The members of the Political Bureau Standing Committee are promoted from the grassroots level, lacking experience in central governance, making Xi concerned that these inexperienced individuals may cause chaos in national decision-making, affecting the regime.
“These are the circumstances created by Xi Jinping himself. He cannot delegate powers, and apparently, these people are incapable of handling the tasks, so Xi Jinping has to step in again. Xi Jinping’s own shortcomings result in many unusual occurrences, especially in political appointments last year, notably in the areas of diplomacy, national defense, and the Chinese economy.”
Xi Jinping has personally stressed the need to “ensure overall social stability” in response to epidemic prevention and control as well as recent disasters such as the collapse of a highway in Meidagao, Guangdong, attracting attention.
Chen Shimin mentioned that post the 20th National Congress, while Xi Jinping may seem to hold immense power, akin to an emperor, the legitimacy of his rule is gradually weakening. “The current state of China’s economy, unemployment, local debts, unfinished real estate projects, and numerous economic and social problems are eroding the legitimacy of his rule. A significant economic and social upheaval may occur in the future due to public grievances leading to power struggles that could bring him down.”
He stated that this underscores why Xi Jinping is so focused on stability maintenance. “He knows that his ability to wield such power now relies on maintaining stability, utilizing various social control measures to suppress public discontent.”
As an example, this year, as the Chinese stock market continues to plummet, Chinese investors went as far as posting distress signals on the website of the US embassy, indicating that public grievances do exist but are being suppressed and controlled by Xi Jinping through stability maintenance methods.
“This kind of control is like a spring: the more you push it down, the more forcefully it will rebound when released in the future. Once public grievances erupt, it could potentially lead to a situation akin to the latter half of 1989 in Eastern European countries, overthrowing communist regimes overnight.”
Lai Rongwei remarked that the CCP incessantly talks about maintaining stability, expanding the powers of the national security departments to control the populace, and fabricating foreign enemies, engaging in constant clashes with Western democracies. However, Chinese society has progressed over the years and is no longer reflective of the era of Mao Zedong, yet Xi Jinping continues to govern using Maoist methods, risking an overthrow of the regime.