On May 27th, the trilateral summit between China, Japan, and South Korea was overshadowed by China’s continued disregard, making it more of an informal meeting rather than a true trilateral summit. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s status was diminished compared to his predecessor Li Keqiang. Li Keqiang’s participation seemed more like that of a temporary envoy for the Chinese Communist Party leadership. At a time when China-Japan and China-South Korea relations are at a standstill, the trilateral summit was supposed to be an opportunity to improve relations with neighboring countries. However, China seemed to dismiss it, disregarding the future of China and the well-being of its people.
From May 5th to 11th, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping visited France, Serbia, and Hungary. However, on May 27th, at the trilateral summit held in Seoul, South Korea, Xi Jinping refused to participate and was represented by Li Keqiang.
Xi Jinping seemed more interested in interacting with the French President, hoping to create a rift in the US-EU alliance through Europe. However, Japan remains the world’s fourth-largest economy, with economic activities between China and Japan and China-South Korea exceeding those with France by a significant margin.
In 2023, although the total trade volume between China and Japan decreased by 10.7%, it still reached around $318 billion. China’s exports to Japan were about $157.5 billion, while imports from Japan were around $160.5 billion, maintaining a relative balance.
In 2023, the total trade volume between China and South Korea also decreased significantly but still reached about $267.6 billion. China’s exports to South Korea were approximately $142.8 billion, and imports from South Korea were around $124.8 billion. China recorded a trade surplus with South Korea for the first time in 31 years.
In contrast, although trade between China and France continued to grow in 2023, the total trade volume was only about $78.9 billion, not comparable to the trade between China and Japan or China and South Korea. The importance of Serbia and Hungary to China is even lower. Currently, as China’s economy worsens and faces isolation internationally, Xi Jinping’s high-profile visit to France while avoiding participation in the China-Japan-South Korea summit appears illogical.
Japan and the US are strengthening their alliance, while South Korea is also leaning towards the US, putting China in an extremely unfavorable international situation. China should be working to improve relations with its neighbors, try to retain Japan and South Korea, or at least prevent both countries from further aligning with the US. However, China is seeking distant alliances, as evidenced by Xi Jinping traveling far to France but not willing to participate in the trilateral summit, neglecting Japan and South Korea.
French President Macron directly urged Xi Jinping to commit not to provide military assistance to Russia, but Xi Jinping could only respond evasively. Perhaps Xi Jinping did not want to hear direct discussions from Japanese and South Korean leaders regarding issues in the Korean Peninsula, East China Sea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, choosing to avoid them altogether.
It is possible that within the Chinese Communist Party, there is an assessment that there is no way to prevent Japan and South Korea from tilting towards the US, leading to the abandonment of efforts to improve relations with these two countries. This essentially treats East Asian neighbors as enemies. Consequently, from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and even the Philippines, China is effectively cooperating with the US and its allies in building a defense strategy along the First Island Chain. If China is still concerned about saving face, then the Chinese Communist Party’s approach is far beyond mere foolishness.
Since 2008, leaders from China, Japan, and South Korea have been holding annual summits, with a rotation of hosting responsibilities among the countries. From 2012, the then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao attended five consecutive meetings, and Japan sent the Chief Cabinet Secretary, essentially equivalent to a Prime Minister, while South Korea’s President at the time, Lee Myung-bak, personally participated. However, relations between the three countries became tense, leading to a hiatus in the meetings.
In 2015, the trilateral summit was rebooted in Seoul, with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe participating, replacing the former South Korean President Park Geun-hye, and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang representing China. Both Japan and South Korea placed high importance on the summit, showing their desire to improve relations with neighboring countries, but Xi Jinping chose not to participate. At that time, China had begun to confront the US and disregarded Japan and South Korea, maintaining the convention by having Li Keqiang participate as the Chinese Premier, who was then the second-ranking figure in the party.
In 2019, the trilateral summit resumed in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, with Japanese Prime Minister Abe participating, and South Korea’s new President being Moon Jae-in, reaffirming the high regard both countries had for the event. Despite China hosting the summit, Xi Jinping did not make an appearance, and Li Keqiang continued to represent China. At that time, amidst the US-China trade war, it would have been wise for China to significantly improve relations with Japan and South Korea, yet China seemed unaware of the urgency of the situation. Subsequently, relations between Japan and South Korea worsened significantly, making it difficult to improve China-Japan relations, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic leading to the third suspension of the China-Japan-South Korea summit.
Upon the initial restart of the China-Japan-South Korea summit, China’s response was noticeably delayed compared to Japan and South Korea. When the summit restarted for the second time, China played host, but still lacked a basic understanding of the international situation, failing to recognize the importance of relations with East Asian neighbors. Subsequently, China deliberately concealed and spread the virus, attempting to stage a “rise in the East, decline in the West,” with results contrary to their expectations. Today, China is in a precarious position but has yet to realize the gravity of the situation.
From the beginning, Li Keqiang did not inherit the title of the second-ranking figure, and his official aircraft did not get passed down, with Li Keqiang having to travel on chartered flights. On May 27th, while Li Keqiang attended the trilateral summit in South Korea, the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party held a meeting in Beijing, making Li Keqiang appear insignificant, effectively reducing China’s level of participation in the trilateral summit.
Li Keqiang likely could only read from a prepared script at the summit venue, lacking the authority to engage in genuine negotiations with the Japanese and South Korean leaders. The China-Japan-South Korea summit practically became a Japan-Korea+1 summit, and Li Keqiang’s meeting with the Japanese and South Korean leaders was likely just a formality, with him not daring to speak out of turn during bilateral talks.
China pretends to be arrogant towards Japan and South Korea, continuously engaging in wolf warrior diplomacy. Chinese warships frequently circumvent Japan, and an aircraft carrier entered Japan’s surrounding waters. Missiles test-fired by China around Taiwan even landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Today, Japan entirely stands with the US in the Western Pacific, and South Korea is rapidly moving closer to the US, making efforts to reduce economic dependence on China. China can only play the economic card against Japan and South Korea, but its leverage is diminishing.
Upon arriving in Seoul on May 26th, Li Keqiang first met with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. Despite a significant decline in China-South Korea trade, Li Keqiang still referred to the bilateral relationship as “fruitful in economic cooperation” and described the two nations as “trusted neighbors achieving mutual development.” However, China is well aware that South Korea is most concerned about North Korea-related issues, which Li Keqiang’s statement did not touch upon. Li Keqiang then met with Lee Jae-yong, Chairman of Samsung Group, continuing to prioritize economic leverage.
Yoon Suk-yeol mentioned that it had been nine years since the visit of former Premier Li Keqiang to South Korea in 2015. He also referenced past meetings with Xi Jinping during the G20 summit in Indonesia in November 2022 and with Li Keqiang during the ASEAN summit in Jakarta in September 2023.
These statements essentially outline the current state of relations between China and South Korea. It has been nine years since a Chinese leader visited South Korea, with recent encounters only taking place in third countries for a brief period, making it challenging to consider the two nations as “trusted neighbors achieving mutual development.”
Yoon Suk-yeol expressed hopes for “continuing to enhance exchanges” and to “mutually respect each other.” This implies that South Korea feels the representation of Li Keqiang at the summit lacks sufficient respect. South Korea has invested substantial effort in resuming the China-Japan-South Korea summit three times, yet China has been dismissive, continuing to undervalue South Korea.
On the morning of May 27th, North Korea suddenly announced its plan to launch a satellite between May 27th and June 4th. This appeared to be a deliberately provocative act. If China had orchestrated this maneuver, it would mean China is playing a double game with South Korea, completely disregarding the idea of being “partners.” If China cannot entirely control North Korea, it would lose face in front of South Korea. The Chinese state media remained silent on this matter.
During the summit’s opening remarks, Yoon Suk-yeol specifically mentioned North Korea’s preparation to launch a satellite, but Li Keqiang continued reading from his script, completely ignoring the issue.
Yoon Suk-yeol also expressed a desire to “continue enhancing exchanges” and “mutual respect.” This hints that South Korea considers Li Keqiang’s participation in the summit disrespectful. South Korea has devoted significant effort to reopening the trilateral summit, yet China remains aloof, essentially pushing South Korea further towards the US.
On the evening of May 27th, North Korea launched an unspecified object, likely a satellite, from the southern end of its western coast, which quickly crashed and failed to enter its intended orbit. Clearly, North Korea does not wish for improved relations between China and South Korea.
China has already made an enemy of Japan but lacks the ability to suppress Japan. By behaving aggressively in the Western Pacific, China has inadvertently created a rare opportunity for Japan’s resurgence. If China stopped causing trouble, it could continue to benefit from globalization and maintain its position in Asia. However, China has taken a contrary path, leading to a swift withdrawal of supply chains from China.
The US-Japan security alliance effectively restricts Japan’s military development, ensuring long-term security through a purely defensive strategy, a significant advantage for China as the US guarantees security in East Asia. However, China continues to be troublesome in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea, leading to the US loosening constraints on Japan while Japan enhances its counterattack capabilities. China has made Japan a direct adversary.
With US assistance, Japan is expanding its influence in political and economic spheres in Asia, while China’s influence is declining. European allies of the US are also increasing cooperation with Japan, establishing Japan as a critical anchor point for the Indo-Pacific strategy. By abandoning Japan and South Korea, China is seeking refuge in a few European countries and the Middle East, a strategy that can be considered putting the cart before the horse.
During a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Li Keqiang, it was likely that Li Keqiang’s statements were not to be trusted entirely, mainly serving as an intermediary for the Chinese Communist Party leadership. Kishida urged the immediate lifting of import restrictions on Japanese food, reiterated serious concerns about the East China Sea situation, including activities around the Senkaku Islands, and China’s increased military presence near Japan. Kishida also expressed grave concerns about Taiwan, the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Japanese citizens detained in China.
Li Keqiang first mentioned the “important political guidance” achieved in November 2023 between Xi Jinping and Kishida in San Francisco, calling it a “milestone.” He stressed the need to “properly manage differences” and drew a “red line” on the Taiwan issue as instructed.
China’s unwillingness to improve relations with Japan was evident during the talks, resembling discussions held between China and the US, with very little convergence between the two sides.
China claimed that holding the trilateral leaders’ meeting after more than four years symbolized the “reboot and fresh start” of cooperation between the three countries. However, on May 26th, Xinhua published an article titled “China-Japan-South Korea cooperation: How do young people view it?” The article stated, “Youth represents the future of China-Japan-South Korea relations… anticipates more exchanges.”
This rhetoric sounds familiar. Xi Jinping has mentioned before that the future of China-US relations lies in the “civilian sector.” Chinese state media are now suggesting that the future of China-Japan-South Korea relations lies with the “youth.” Consequently, this implies that the current middle-aged and elderly individuals cannot effect change, signifying that both the Chinese leadership and the public are aware of their limitations.
During a press conference at the Chinese Foreign Ministry on May 27th, a journalist asked if China would consider granting visa-free entry to citizens of South Korea and Japan under the announced China-Japan-South Korea cooperation framework.
Spokesperson Mao Ning did not provide a direct answer, merely stating, “continuously improving the facilitation of personnel exchanges.”
Mao Ning’s statement reflects the current state of China-Japan-South Korea relations. While China has been selectively granting visa-free entry to several countries, such as when Xi Jinping visited France and announced an extension of visa-free entry, it maintains strict policies towards neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea. By declining to participate in the China-Japan-South Korea summit, China has chosen to stand aside, allowing Japan and South Korea to take center stage, effectively surrendering and allowing the US to further strengthen coordination within the US-Japan-South Korea triangle.
To further diminish Li Keqiang’s status, Chinese state media intentionally downplayed Li Keqiang’s participation in the China-Japan-South Korea summit, while prominently announcing that the Chinese Communist Party leadership was preparing to receive the leaders of Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia, and the UAE. Unable to secure relations with neighboring countries, China is seeking validation from a few Middle Eastern and Eastern European countries, a strategy that does little to resolve its current international predicaments and might end up backfiring.
The article was originally published by Dajiyuan.