The Chinese government announced on Tuesday (January 6th) that it will ban the export of dual-use items with potential military applications to Japan, with immediate effect. This decision also means that exports of certain rare earth elements to Japan will be prohibited. The move is seen as further retaliation against the “Taiwan contingency” remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae, escalating the already tense relations between China and Japan.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce released a notice on Tuesday titled “Notice on Strengthening Export Controls on Dual-Use Items to Japan,” prohibiting the export of all dual-use items to Japanese military users, military purposes, and any other end-users that may contribute to enhancing Japan’s military capabilities.
Although the Ministry of Commerce did not specify the affected export products in its statement on Tuesday, based on the list of dual-use items and technologies import and export permits management catalogue for the year 2026 released by the Ministry on December 31, 2025, it includes rare earths, chemicals, advanced electronic products, sensors, aerospace components, drones, and nuclear-related technologies.
The new export restrictions from Beijing have intensified the recent dispute between China and Japan due to the “Taiwan contingency” remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi. On November 7th last year, Takaichi stated during parliamentary questioning that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could be considered a “threat to Japan’s survival.” This statement by Takaichi essentially provides legal basis for Japan to exercise collective self-defense and intervene militarily in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict.
Subsequently, China took a series of economic retaliatory measures against Japan, including warning Chinese tourists not to visit Japan, suspending efforts to resume importing Japanese seafood, and halting the approval of new Japanese films for screening in China, among others. Beijing also demanded Takaichi retract her statements, but Takaichi refused. Member of Japan’s ruling party and former Assistant Defense Minister Nakayama Yasuhide stated that discussing security realities frankly is not provocation but the right of every sovereign nation.
This Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the latest export control measures against Japan were in response to recent erroneous statements made by Japanese leaders regarding Taiwan, hinting at the possibility of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
Rare earth elements are crucial for manufacturing electronic products, laser-guided weapons, and advanced fighters like the F-35. It is currently unclear whether China’s latest restrictions are merely symbolic and what impact they will have on Japan.
According to Bloomberg, Nanyang Technological University Associate Professor Dylan Loh mentioned that the vague wording of these restrictions theoretically allows Beijing to block the import of “even civil” goods from Japan.
“As to whether they will actually do so is another question,” stated Loh.
Becca Wasser, Director of Defense Policy and Security at Bloomberg Economics, highlighted that Japan’s existing raw material reserves mean that China’s latest restrictions may take some time to have an impact. However, these reserves are unlikely to meet the demands of all industries.
China’s move on Tuesday not only signifies a significant escalation of Beijing’s threat against Japan but also shows other countries China’s economic coercion.
According to Reuters, three insiders revealed on Tuesday that the Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers will hold a meeting on January 12th in Washington to discuss rare earth supply issues.
One of the sources added that setting a floor price for rare earths will be one of the focal points of the meeting, in addition to discussing other critical mineral issues.
Officials began discussions on floor price issues last year to drive investments in critical minerals outside of China.
The G7 group includes not only Japan but also the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Canada. These countries’ reliance on China for a range of materials, from rare earth magnets to battery metals, has long raised concerns. In June last year, the G7 reached an action plan aimed at safeguarding supply chain security and promoting economic growth.