China’s real estate market continues to decline with no signs of recovery in sight. Official data shows that in November, the sales prices of residential properties in 70 major and medium-sized cities in China fell by 2.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening. Overall, prices decreased compared to the previous month by 0.1 percentage point. On December 15th, the topic labeled “National 70 Cities Real Estate Price Decline” briefly trended among the top three on Weibo.
The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data on December 15th, indicating that in November, the sales prices of residential properties in 70 major and medium-sized cities overall decreased on a month-on-month basis, with the year-on-year decline expanding.
In terms of new properties, regarding year-on-year changes in November, the sales prices of newly-built residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 1.2%. The decrease widened by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Specifically, Shanghai registered a 5.1% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 2.1%, 4.3%, and 3.7% respectively. Second and third-tier cities witnessed decreases of 2.2% and 3.5% year-on-year, with the declines expanding by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, the sales prices of newly-built residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.4%, with the decline expanding by 0.1% compared to the previous month. Notably, Shanghai saw a 0.1% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.9% respectively. Second and third-tier cities recorded drops of 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, with the declines narrowing by 0.1 percentage point in both cases.
The decline in prices for existing homes was even more pronounced. Year-on-year, in November, the sales prices of existing homes in first-tier cities dropped by 5.8%, with the decline expanding by 1.4% from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 6.8%, 4.6%, 7.2%, and 4.8% respectively. Second and third-tier cities saw decreases of 5.6% and 5.8% year-on-year, with the declines expanding by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
Month-on-month, the sales prices of existing homes in first-tier cities fell by 1.1%, with the decline expanding by 0.2% compared to the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen exhibited drops of 1.3%, 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.0% respectively. Second-tier cities saw a 0.6% decrease month-on-month, maintaining the same decline as the previous month. In third-tier cities, existing home prices dropped by 0.6% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage point.
Existing home prices are considered more indicative of the direction of the real estate market compared to new home prices. New home prices are influenced by various factors such as government land pricing, taxes, developer pricing strategies, and pre-sale policies, while existing home prices reflect direct transactions based on real properties in the current market environment, offering insights into market supply and demand, buyer confidence, and economic conditions.
However, official Chinese government data often conceals unfavorable situations, and the actual data may be even worse. According to the news from Observer, director Zhang Bo of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute pointed out that based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the overall prices of existing homes decreased compared to the previous month. Data from Anjuke’s online platform showed that the average asking prices of existing homes in 100 cities dropped by 8.59% year-on-year, indicating a continuous decline in existing home prices.
On December 15th, the China Index Research Institute stated in a blog post that from January to November, existing home prices in 100 cities accumulated a 7.46% decline, expanding by 0.69 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. In the first quarter, prices dropped by 1.51%, with a mild recovery trend from the fourth quarter of 2024 continuing into January and February, followed by increased declines in March. As the year progressed, the monthly price declines widened further from October to November, accumulating a 1.78% drop.
On December 1st, the China Index Research Institute’s report revealed that in November, existing home prices in 100 cities declined year-on-year and month-on-month, marking 43 consecutive months of drops in existing home prices.
The data on real estate prices in 70 cities is used by official organizations such as the National Bureau of Statistics to monitor the real estate market, while the residential price index for 100 cities is a monitoring indicator regularly released by the China Real Estate Index System (CREIS), reflecting the monthly variations in residential prices in key cities nationwide.
The news of the nationwide decline in real estate prices for 70 cities on December 15th has garnered widespread attention across the internet.
Netizens expressed sentiments such as, “The price of our house has dropped from 70,000 to 50,000, located in the northern area of Shanghai. No one around dares to buy or exchange houses anymore.” “Many are still calculating the rent-to-sale ratio. In the long run, houses might not sell or be rented out. Not letting people see historical transaction prices and price reduction records is a new form of deception.”
“Multiple cities experiencing housing price declines are the result of a combination of factors including supply and demand dynamics, changes in population structure, declining financial leverage, and other issues like insufficient market confidence and imbalanced regional development.” “In an endlessly declining market, confidence is more crucial than anything. From a macro perspective, this chilliness affects the joys and sorrows of many families, evaporating hard-earned savings and wealth. The economy is a complex ecosystem of interconnected elements, where the most important asset is constantly shrinking. How can we have confidence to consume?”
“It’s not just about price declines, but also about unpaid wages and a significant number of jobless individuals.” “It can be foreseen that the situation in 2026 will be even more severe. When will this kind of life come to an end?” “Fluctuations in housing prices are closely tied to economic conditions!”