Recent Activities of Key Chinese Communist Party Figures Raise Speculation and Attention
In recent days, members of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, Wang Huning and Hu Chunhua, have been increasingly prominent. Their participation in the centennial symposium of Chinese nuclear physicist Zhu Guangya in Beijing has sparked interest. There have been rumors circulating that Xi Jinping may step down from his positions as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the upcoming Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP. Some political analysts believe that the recent high-profile appearances of Wang Huning and Hu Chunhua coincide with these rumors, signaling a serious challenge to Xi Jinping’s power.
On December 25, Beijing hosted a symposium commemorating the 100th anniversary of the birth of Chinese nuclear physicist Zhu Guangya. Wang Huning, a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, attended the event and met with Zhu Guangya’s family beforehand. Hu Chunhua, Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the CPPCC, also appeared at the event and reviewed Zhu Guangya’s life achievements.
Wang Huning has been unusually active and high-profile in his recent activities, contrasting with his usual low-key style. On December 19, Wang Huning met with Harvard University professor Allison in Beijing, a meeting that was prominently reported by official Chinese media, which is quite rare.
On December 18, the CCP held a conference on ethnic work, which Wang Huning attended and delivered a speech at. According to official media reports, the conference was of high significance, with attendees including officials from central and state institutions, relevant organizations, and leaders of central enterprises.
Hu Chunhua’s recent movements have also attracted considerable attention. As a member of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP and the current Vice Chairman ranked second in the CPPCC, he is seen as the designated successor by former CCP leader Hu Jintao for the next generation. During the 19th Party Congress, Hu Chunhua did not advance to the Politburo Standing Committee, retaining only the position of member of the Politburo and serving as the third-ranked Vice Premier of the State Council. Despite his five years as Vice Premier, Hu Chunhua has maintained a low profile.
Prior to the 20th Party Congress, it was widely speculated that Hu Chunhua was a top candidate for the Standing Committee, and even considered a potential successor to the then Prime Minister Li Keqiang. However, during the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping broke tradition by securing a second term, leading to the exit of the faction represented by Li Keqiang, Wang Yang, and Hu Chunhua, with Hu Chunhua retaining only his position as Central Committee member.
After the conclusion of the 20th Central Committee Third Plenum in July 2023, Hu Chunhua’s frequent high-profile public appearances have drawn external attention. On July 18, the four-day Third Plenum of the CCP ended in Beijing. That evening, a news clip broadcast by CCTV showed Hu Chunhua sitting side by side with Xi Jinping at a subgroup meeting during the Third Plenum. Yao Cheng, former Chief of the Legal Advisory Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government of the CCP now living in Belgium, believes Xi Jinping’s decision to have Hu Chunhua sit by his side carries significant meaning.
On December 12, the “2024 From Capital International Forum” took place in Madrid, Spain, where Hu Chunhua uncommonly replaced Chinese Vice President Han Zheng at the opening ceremony, reading Xi Jinping’s congratulatory letter and delivering a speech. While in Spain, Hu Chunhua also attended a collective meeting with Spanish King Felipe VI and held discussions with Maria Rosa, the First Vice President of the Spanish Senate.
Political analyst Li Linyi told a reporter that Wang Huning’s recent series of high-profile activities seem to highlight his political ambitions to replace Xi Jinping. However, whether he can successfully replace Xi Jinping still depends on the complex power struggles within the CCP. Li Linyi believes that the upcoming Fourth Plenum could be a crucial turning point in determining the direction of this situation.
Former PLA Navy Colonel Staff Officer Yao Cheng revealed to a reporter that there are widespread rumors within the military that Xi Jinping will step down from his roles as General Secretary and Chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP, retaining only the symbolic title of President. He stated that the exact date for the convening of the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee has yet to be confirmed but is expected to take place next year.
On December 28, political commentator Li Linyi told a reporter that among the dismissed military leaders, there are many close associates of Xi Jinping. As Xi Jinping gradually loses control over the military, power struggles within other areas of the CCP could intensify further because the factions will no longer fear his authority.
Li Linyi also stated that whether Wang Huning’s actions stem from personal intentions or other reasons, these signs indicate that the internal power struggles within the CCP have reached a boiling point.
Political commentator Tang Jingyuan believes that while the rumors about Xi Jinping’s possible removal at the Fourth Plenum of the CCP still require observation, it is too early to draw conclusions at present. However, the signs of his power gradually weakening are becoming more apparent.
Tang Jingyuan, in an interview with a reporter, stated that the recent high-profile appearances of Wang Huning and Hu Chunhua indicate a gradual decline in Xi Jinping’s power. Under the previous system of “Emperor-like” rule, Wang Huning has always played the role of Xi Jinping’s advisor, existing mainly as a supporting figure. However, Wang Huning’s frequent appearances and high-profile performances lately suggest that the top echelons of the CCP may be reverting to the collective leadership model of the era of Hu and Wen Jiabao.
Tang Jingyuan further expressed that Hu Chunhua is a more sensitive figure. By past standards, he is considered a “crown prince.” During the era of Xi Jinping’s autocratic rule, Hu Chunhua has been cautious, maintaining an extremely low profile and being excluded from the core of power, only serving as Vice Chairman of the CPPCC. However, Hu Chunhua’s recent activities have significantly increased, including visits to Inner Mongolia where he formerly served as a leader.
Tang Jingyuan believes that this indicates a notable improvement in Hu Chunhua’s political standing. The underlying reasons could be a loosening of Xi Jinping’s suspicion and guard against him. However, from another perspective, this is also a signal of a serious challenge to Xi Jinping’s power.
Continued Turmoil in the Chinese Communist Party’s Military
On December 25, several military leaders were removed from the National People’s Congress membership, including former Army Vice Commander Yu Haitao and former Southern Theater Command Deputy Commander and Navy Commander Li Pengcheng, both of whom held the rank of Major General.
Yu Haitao, aged 66, is the son of former Guangzhou Military Region Commander, General Yu Taizhong. He previously served as the Commander of the 163rd Infantry Division, Deputy Commander of the 42nd Group Army of the Guangzhou Military Region, and was promoted to the rank of Major General in July 2004. Three years later, he was appointed as the Commander of the 42nd Group Army. In 2013, Yu Haitao was transferred to be the Deputy Commander of the Nanjing Military Region and promoted to the rank of Lieutenant General the following year. In 2015, he was appointed as the Army Vice Commander and has since retired.
61-year-old Navy Vice Admiral Li Pengcheng previously held positions such as Deputy Chief of Staff of the North Sea Fleet, Chief of Staff of the East China Sea Fleet, and Deputy Chief of Staff of the Navy, and took office as the Navy Commander of the Southern Theater Command in 2024.
The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress announced that from March 2023 to the present, 14 military leaders have been removed from the Fourteenth National People’s Congress membership, including four Generals, eight Lieutenant Generals, and two Major Generals.
Prior to this, on December 23, the Central Military Commission of the CCP held a ceremony to promote Chen Hui, the Political Commissar of the Army, to the rank of General. This ceremony was held following the suspension of General Miao Hua, a member of the Central Military Commission and Director of the Political Work Department of the Military Commission, announced by the Ministry of National Defense on November 28, marking the first official disclosure of personnel changes in the Army Political Commissar position.
However, the relevant footage of the CCTV Evening News did not show the presence of Army Commander Li Qiaoming, former Army Political Commissar Qin Shutong, Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, and Armed Police Commander Wang Chunning at the promotion ceremony. This indicates that these four individuals did not attend the promotion ceremony, prompting further speculation and attention to their current status. All four are members of the Central Committee of the CCP.
Since last year, the top ranks of the CCP military have undergone continuous turmoil, with at least a dozen military leaders and top executives in the military-industrial complex being investigated or removed from their posts. This includes two Defense Ministers, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, personally promoted by Xi Jinping, and three Commanders – former Air Force Commander Ding Laihang, former Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao, and Zhou Yaning. These personnel changes once again highlight the complex power struggles within the CCP military.
With Miao Hua’s suspension, the list of members of the Central Military Commission of the CCP has been further reduced. Currently, the Central Military Commission consists of only five members: Chairman Xi Jinping, Vice Chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, and members Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin. Since 2017, the Central Military Commission has usually maintained seven members; the current situation of two vacant positions is exceptionally rare.
Tang Jingyuan commented on this, stating that Yu Haitao and Li Qiaoming have close ties, and Li Qiaoming’s absence from the recent promotion ceremony of the rank of General raises speculation that he may indeed be in trouble or under investigation, as rumored. Moreover, Li Pengcheng is a typical navy figure, groomed by Miao Hua and belonging to Xi Jinping’s faction as a core military leader.
Tang Jingyuan mentioned that the successive investigations and troubles of military leaders indicate that the cleansing targeting Xi Jinping’s faction within the military continues unabated. This ongoing purge itself demonstrates Xi Jinping’s visibly weakened military authority.