Taiwanese meteorologists have pointed out that there has been a noticeable warming trend across Taiwan in the days leading up to Christmas. However, a cold air mass is expected to move southward on December 27, bringing initially damp and then dry cold weather. As the New Year approaches, on December 31 and January 1, there may be brief localized showers in major cities such as Taipei, Yilan, and Hualien.
According to Wu Derong, an associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan, the latest European model (ECMWF) simulations indicate that today, mid-level clouds will gradually move southeastward, leading to improving conditions from north to south in the western half of Taiwan during the day. There is still a chance of brief localized showers in Greater Taipei and the eastern half of the island. Temperatures will continue to rise slowly, remaining relatively cool. Today’s temperatures are expected to range from 13 to 20 degrees Celsius in the north, 14 to 22 degrees Celsius in central Taiwan, 14 to 23 degrees Celsius in the south, and 14 to 23 degrees Celsius in the east.
Wu noted that the latest model simulations show a significant warm-up in the weather on the 25th, with skies clearing up to partly cloudy throughout the island, and a chance of isolated brief showers in the east. On the 26th, a cold front is expected to move southward, bringing localized showers to Greater Taipei and the eastern regions with a slight temperature drop.
Looking ahead, Wu highlighted that on the 27th, a cold air mass from the mainland will move southward behind the front, leading to a further drop in temperatures, especially in northern Taiwan, becoming increasingly damp and cold. On the 28th, the cold weather will transition from damp to dry cold. Clear and dry conditions are expected across Taiwan on the mornings of the 29th and 30th. Both the latest European and American models suggest that this cold air mass, primarily driven by the mainland air mass, holds the highest probability. However, due to strong radiative cooling, there is a possibility of even lower temperatures, potentially reaching the criteria for a strong mainland cold air mass. Model adjustments are ongoing to refine the predictions.
Looking towards the end of the year, the latest European model simulations indicate a clear rise in temperatures across Taiwan from the daytime of December 30 to the 31st, with stable, warm, and sunny conditions and significant day-to-night temperature differences. On January 1st, as the northeast monsoon moves southward, there may be brief localized showers in Greater Taipei, Yilan, and Hualien, with cooler temperatures in northern Taiwan. The American model suggests a stronger cold air mass; however, given that it is a 9-day forecast, there is still considerable uncertainty in the predictions, and continued monitoring of model adjustments is advised.
On the 23rd, the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau issued a typhoon formation alert, indicating that a tropical depression located over the South China Sea has developed into the 26th typhoon of the year, named Pabuk (international name: PABUK). Pabuk is expected to approach the central and southern parts of the peninsula in the following days. While Pabuk poses no threat to Taiwan, its development marks the 26th typhoon of the year and the first one in December, a relatively rare occurrence aligning with average annual and December climatic values (26.09 typhoons on average annually and 1.17 typhoons on average in December).