China’s economic data for the year 2024 in all 31 provinces and regions of mainland China have been released. When compared with the annual targets set by each province, 23 provinces and regions fell short of their goals, including some major economic hubs. Additionally, the per capita disposable income growth in 23 provinces and regions, including Shanghai and Beijing, has decreased.
However, the reliability of the data released by the Chinese Communist Party is questionable and has long been criticized by external sources. The actual economic situation may be worse than portrayed.
According to reports from Chinese media outlets such as Caixin, based on the recent economic performance data for the year 2024 released by the 31 provinces and regions, 23 of them did not meet their self-imposed economic growth targets for the year.
Among the top six economic provinces, Guangdong failed to meet its own 5% target for 2024, with an economic growth rate of only 3.5%.
Analysis suggests that Guangdong’s economic growth rate has been consistently below the central government’s set targets since 2020. The slow growth in industries has impacted the economic growth rates in Guangzhou and Foshan, leading to a lackluster performance in Guangdong’s overall economic growth.
Provinces ranked from 16th to 31st in terms of economic volume, except Tianjin, failed to achieve their self-imposed economic growth rate targets for 2024. The growth rates of Hainan, Qinghai, Shanxi, and Heilongjiang were all more than 2.3 percentage points below their annual targets.
For three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024, Heilongjiang failed to meet its targets, ranking last in economic growth in China in 2023 and third from the bottom in 2024.
The released data also indicates that over two-thirds of the provinces experienced a decline in per capita disposable income growth.
Compared to 2023, in 2024, 23 provinces saw a decrease in the growth rate of per capita disposable income. Notably, Beijing and Shanghai, perennially in the top two nationwide, witnessed the most significant decline in growth rate. Taking Shanghai as an example, the increase in per capita disposable income was 5795 yuan in 2021, 1538 yuan in 2022, 5224 yuan in 2023, and 3531 yuan in 2024.
Lu Feng, a professor at the National Development Institute of Peking University, analyzed that based on international comparative data, the proportion of Chinese residents’ income in the total national income is significantly low, which is a long-term important factor hindering consumer spending. Meanwhile, income inequality among Chinese residents is large, which also hampers the stimulation of consumption potential.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese Communist Party’s extreme lockdown measures led to an economic decline that has yet to fully recover to previous levels.
As for the economic growth targets set by each province for this year, most of the major economic provinces have set GDP growth rates around 5.5%. Guangdong aims for around 5%, while Jiangsu and Shandong aim for over 5%, similar to last year’s targets. Additionally, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Henan aim for around 5.5%, and Qinghai’s target is around 4.5%.
Regarding how these targets will be achieved, according to reports from Caixin, expanding domestic demand is one of the main focuses of economic work this year.