A recent survey report from the international consulting firm Oliver Wyman has sent shockwaves through China’s affluent circles like a “bomb.” The report reveals that 22% of China’s wealthy population holds a negative view of the country’s economic prospects, surpassing the peak of pessimism during the lockdown period of the COVID-19 pandemic in October 2022. Analysts point out that this is not just a short-term fluctuation but a “fundamental shift in mindset,” with various indications suggesting that the Chinese economy is beyond repair.
This survey conducted in May this year targeted 2,000 high-income households in China with monthly incomes exceeding 30,000 RMB. It showed that young urban adults (18 to 28 years old) experienced the largest decline in emotions, which is related to the persistently high youth unemployment rate. Despite some recovery in post-pandemic travel and consumption, the economic confidence of China’s high-income population remains severely shaken. Imke Wouters, a partner at Oliver Wyman, stated that this pessimistic sentiment is not just a passing phase but a “fundamental shift in mindset.” When the wealthy no longer dare to spend, invest, or believe in the future, the growth momentum of the Chinese economy will face significant challenges.
In response to Oliver Wyman’s survey report, the popular blogger with over 100,000 followers, “In the Wild,” commented that the report illustrates how even the middle and upper class, with high annual incomes and substantial assets, have collectively lost confidence. The young wealthy individuals (18 to 28 years old) who once lived in first-tier cities and occupied the top of the pyramid are now “losing hope at a visible speed.” They are no longer enthusiastic about luxury consumption, investing in startups, or pursuing upward mobility dreams but seeking to “escape from this suffocating country.”
In the eyes of “In the Wild,” the current pessimism among Chinese affluent individuals towards the economy now exceeds the peak during the COVID-19 lockdown in October 2022 when the entire city was locked down, restaurants closed, and factories halted, indicating that the Chinese economy has silently collapsed.
Imke Wouters, a partner at Oliver Wyman, mentioned that the current pessimism among China’s wealthy towards the economic outlook is not just a short-term sentiment but a “fundamental shift in mindset.”
“In the Wild” stated that the truly terrifying aspect is when even the wealthy are no longer willing to spend, invest, or believe in the future, who will hold up the Chinese economy? The despair towards the economy has not shown signs of recovery since the end of the “dynamic clearance” policy in 2022. The long-term confidence index of Chinese consumers remains languishing at a historical low of 85, with no signs of recovery in three years. This dismal performance is corroborated by the National Bureau of Statistics data showing a meager 1.6% year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of 2025 (the lowest level in nearly a decade), shattering the notion of a “strong Chinese consumer.”
“Who dare say China’s consumption is strong anymore? Don’t be ridiculous; even the wealthy don’t want to buy things. The real crisis in society is not economic depression but the loss of hope. The most pessimistic group is not the middle-aged people drowning in debt or the recent graduates unable to find jobs but the young wealthy individuals living in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, earning tens of thousands of RMB per month but still feeling restless,” according to “In the Wild.” The parents of these young affluent individuals, aged 18 to 28, mostly enjoyed the golden age of China’s economy, engaging in property speculation, factory ownership, and entrepreneurship, reaping the benefits of the era. But what about the young generation now? They watch China’s economy take off but have never truly possessed it. The wealthy no longer strive to purchase luxury items like Hermès or Rolex, nor do they seek financial freedom.
The pessimism of young wealthy individuals is now translating into concrete actions – the affluent in China are increasingly fond of “traveling abroad.” According to the report from Oliver Wyman, it is estimated that the proportion of them traveling abroad in 2025 will reach 37%, higher than the pre-pandemic 32% in 2019. They are channeling their funds into experiences that can immediately bring them happiness: “Flying to Japan is better than buying a bag, going to Malaysia for hot springs is better than buying a car, at least they can breathe some free air.”
“In the Wild” pointed out that this shift is more than just a change in consumption patterns. Oliver Wyman’s analysis reveals that while the number of travelers to nearby Asian countries like Japan and Malaysia has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, the willingness to visit Europe and America continues to decline. There are two main driving factors behind this trend: strict visa restrictions and concerns about asset security. Especially since 2024, the Chinese government has intensified tax investigations into overseas income, particularly targeting high net-worth individuals, prompting many wealthy individuals not only to physically leave but also to transfer their assets and even consider acquiring a third-country passport to change their identity. This represents the “upgrading of wealthy people’s venture,” exceeding a simple transformation in consumption and is essentially a strategy for the outward movement of capital and talent.
While the wealthy are busy “upgrading,” “In the Wild” pointed out that the younger generation in China, especially those born after 2000, are experiencing a worsening reality with each passing generation. They were born during the period of China’s economic boom and were instilled with the concept of “working hard to change their fate.” However, upon entering society, they find that “they don’t even have a chance to exert effort.” The decrease in job opportunities has reached an alarming level.
In early 2025, data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the youth unemployment rate of 16 to 24-year-olds remained high, with estimated actual unemployment exceeding 30%.
At the same time, research indicates that the percentage of people who believe that hard work will always lead to rewards in China has plummeted from 62% in 2004 to 28% in 2023.
“In the Wild” noted that this represents a profound “systemic collapse of confidence.” When people widely believe that the social structure does not reward diligence and that opportunities are only in the hands of a few, society plunges into “silent anger” – outwardly calm but internally “boiling like fire.” The youth’s sentiment resonates with, “We are not afraid of hardship, but afraid that our efforts will be in vain. We are not lazy, but have nowhere to exert ourselves. We do not wish to be passive, but are fundamentally unable to rise.”
“In the Wild” emphasized that this pervasive sense of unease throughout society far exceeds the anxiety of the wealthy class. Even the traditionally stable middle class is beginning to waver and opt for “escape.” According to statistics, the number of Chinese immigrants intercepted at the southern border of the United States in 2023 was ten times that of the previous year; this trend continued to accelerate in the first half of 2024. This indicates that people are no longer debating “whether to leave” but rather “how to leave.”
The report from Oliver Wyman suggested that this psychological shift will impact overall economic activities. The longer it drags on, the more pessimistic they become about the long-term prospects. Consumption will also become more cautious.
“In the Wild” bluntly stated that this goes beyond a decline in GDP figures; it is a “dissolution of the confidence of the entire nation.” “The collapse of confidence is more lethal than any economic indicator.”
On social media, some netizens posted desperate comments like “Our generation was born in the wrong country at the wrong time,” echoing sentiments of hopelessness. “In the Wild” believes that from online comments to the stark reality of individuals still living with their parents at 28 years old, this is not merely individual tragedies but a reflection of an era.
“In the Wild” pointed out that “when consumption, confidence, birth rates, and youth employment continue to decline, capital flight accelerates, and even the wealthy and young who should be the most optimistic lose hope, who will the future of this country rely on? True despair is when you are not even worthy of anger, only able to silently retreat. In 2025, China is in the midst of this ‘silent ebb,’ under its calm exterior lies immense pressure for change.”