【Epoch Times, July 21, 2025】The 2025 Taiwan-American-West Coast Conference (TAC-WC) held a “Taiwanese-American Night” banquet in Foster City on the evening of July 12 (last Saturday), inviting the Executive Director of an Indo-Pacific strategic think tank and former Taipei Bureau Chief of a financial and economic news agency, Akitaka Shibata, as the keynote speaker to deliver a speech on the topic of “Taiwan-American Relations and Indo-Pacific Strategy”.
The event attracted over three hundred overseas Chinese attendees, including Deputy Commissioner of the Overseas Community Affairs Council Ruan Zhaoxiong, Director Zhuang Yashu and Deputy Director Cai Jiahua of the San Francisco Culture and Education Center, Chief of the North America Division of the Overseas Chinese Service Lai Zhenli, as well as several overseas Chinese affairs commissioners and representatives of regional associations, joining together in a grand gathering.
Zhang Zhengbang, Chairman and Executive Organizer of the 2025 TAC-WC, stated that the summer conference serves as a significant platform for intergenerational exchange and cultural connection, expressing gratitude to all attendees for enriching the “Taiwanese-American Night”. Deputy Commissioner Ruan Zhaoxiong jokingly praised the organizing team’s dedication and emphasized the importance of unity within the overseas Chinese community.
Shibata pointed out that the United States and China have entered a new era of comprehensive confrontation, with the core of Trump’s foreign policy being containment of the CCP. He predicted that Trump’s return to the political scene would disrupt the existing international order and establish a new global system. Taiwan currently holds a precarious position in the old order, but could seize opportunities in the new landscape to enhance its international visibility and influence.
He highlighted that Trump is currently advancing two key strategies: “Decoupling China from the economy” and “Decoupling China from the military”. The goal is to completely dismantle the economic and military power of the CCP by cutting off technology supply chains, restricting high-tech products from entering China, and undermining China’s capacity to threaten the US.
However, he also warned that Taiwan’s reliance on the “US-China arbitrage” model—receiving orders from the US, producing in China, and then selling back to the US—has become unsustainable. Under Trump’s strategies of economic and military decoupling from China, Taiwan must reposition itself, gradually disentangle from the Chinese market, and seek a more independent development model.
Using the example of Trump’s tariff war, Shibata highlighted that countries closely engaged with China have seen significant tariff increases. As of April 2, Japan faced tariffs of 24%, South Korea 26%, and Taiwan 32%, while countries like Vietnam and Myanmar, with closer ties to China, experienced rates approaching 50%.
Regarding the US-China confrontation, Shibata explained that the CCP excels at using tactics like “sowing discord, appeasement, causing defections, and strangling opponents” to counter the US, particularly leveraging the “causing defections” strategy to undermine US allies.
He illustrated this with the case of South Korea, where the originally pro-US and pro-Japan President Yi Seok-yue was eventually replaced by pro-China Lee Jae-myung due to CCP and North Korean collusion, manipulation of public opinion, and escalating domestic opposition. Shibata asserted that the CCP played a crucial role in the political upheaval in South Korea.
In Japan, after the staunchly pro-US and pro-Taiwan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, his successor Yoshihide Suga unexpectedly received goodwill gestures from China following his appointment, ranging from lifting bans on seafood imports, removing fishing buoys in the Senkaku Islands area, to relaxing visa restrictions, engaging in a policy maneuver called the “five bends” to woo Japan, causing Japan to waver between China and the US.
Regarding Taiwan, Shibata noted that while the Tsai Ing-wen administration and Cabinet lean towards the US, the Legislative Yuan is dominated by the Kuomintang. He directly criticized the Kuomintang for promoting pro-China policies detrimental to their own electoral prospects, resulting in a loss of autonomy. In 2024, KMT Chairman Johnny Chiang, along with 16 legislators, visited Beijing to meet with Wang Hui-ning, despite knowing it was not favorable politically. Now facing pressure from a major recall movement, the KMT continues to push policies like shortening the time required to obtain permanent residency for Chinese nationals and implementing absentee voting. Shibata questioned the rationale behind these measures as clearly disadvantageous in the recall process, stating that it’s not due to their insanity but rather their inability to control the situation, with Xi Jinping ultimately unconcerned about the fate of the KMT.
During the lecture, Shibata analyzed the widespread “Great Recall” movement in Taiwan as a societal backlash against CCP infiltration, serving as a proxy battle against communism. With 1.5 million people signing the petition, the movement aims not for partisan interests but to safeguard democracy.
He particularly highlighted that this movement, led by Cao Xingcheng under the banner of anti-communism, has successfully united leaders from the pro-Taiwan and blue camps. He also mentioned the rare sight of both the Taiwan independence “Whale Flag” and the Republic of China flag waving together during the April 19th demonstration, symbolizing the emergence of a new Taiwanese nationalism aimed at countering communism and protecting Taiwan.
He emphasized that the demands of the “Great Recall” movement to counter communism and protect Taiwan are more likely to resonate internationally. Japan, also facing the menace of the Communist Party, views CCP expansion as a serious threat. Whether in the US, Japan, or Europe, none can tolerate China using force to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s steadfast anti-communist stance, therefore, will help garner more international support and recognition.
Addressing the likelihood of a CCP attack on Taiwan, Shibata stressed the current probability as extremely low. He outlined three main reasons: first, the CCP’s military strength lags behind Russia, while Taiwan is stronger than Ukraine, with the natural barrier of the Taiwan Strait; second, China’s economy is in a slump with resource shortages; and third, over fifty PLA generals have been purged within two years, especially within the “Fujian Clan” responsible for operations against Taiwan, leading to internal chaos within the military.
The real risk lies not in warfare but in Taiwan’s societal resilience. Using the example of the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic, Shibata pointed out that despite Taiwan’s superior pandemic control globally, the society’s reaction was excessively intense when faced with issues in mask availability, vaccine procurement, and rapid testing. Proliferation of fake news and opposition parties exacerbating the situation could easily plunge Taiwan into public panic.
He critiqued the government for lacking accountability when confronted with criticism, resulting in excessive concessions and stalled policymaking. Shibata urged Taiwan to enhance social resilience, resist misinformation and external interference, and avoid being overwhelmed by psychological warfare and information manipulation.
As a naturalized Taiwanese citizen, Shibata praised the hard work and intelligence of the Taiwanese people, particularly in fields such as semiconductor and AI where they excel. However, he noted that the overall society lacks confidence, often overly concerned about criticisms from foreign media. Instances like being labeled “Strawberry Soldiers” by The New York Times or being accused by Trump of stealing semiconductor technology lead to public anxiety and self-doubt.
Furthermore, although Taiwan’s relations with the US and Japan have reached historic highs, leaders in Taiwan and the Ministry of National Defense are overly conservative in engaging with foreign media, hindering the effective dissemination of Taiwan’s voice on the global stage. He recommended that Taiwan learn from Zelensky and proactively engage in global communication.
Shibata predicted that the “Great Recall” is likely to result in the removal of more than double-digit legislators. If successful, the new parliament should be responsible and proactive in implementing reforms. He humorously remarked that even under immense pressure, the KMT carried out tasks assigned by the CCP, suggesting that future representatives of popular opinion should bear greater responsibility for the nation.
In conclusion, Shibata urged Taiwan to acknowledge both its strengths and weaknesses, establish a clear position in the new international context, and build confidence to express itself boldly. Only by being confident and articulate can Taiwan truly step onto the world stage and earn international respect. ◇