A twenty-year study has revealed a significant shift in Chinese perceptions towards the causes of wealth disparity. People now generally believe that structural factors are the most important explanation for poverty, whereas in the past, individuals were more likely to attribute it to their own lack of ability.
According to a national survey conducted in China by two American scholars well-versed in Chinese affairs, twenty years ago, the Chinese public typically viewed social inequality as a natural outcome of a market economy, crediting success primarily to hard work and attributing failure to personal inadequacy. Most respondents held a positive outlook for the future, hoping to see meaningful improvements in their economic circumstances.
However, two decades later, the same survey indicated that inequality in China remains at high levels.
This research was conducted by a team led by retired Harvard University Professor Martin K. Whyte of the John Swanson International Research and Sociology and Professor Scott Rozelle of the FSI Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University.
From 2004 to 2014, respondents believed that lack of ability, effort, and low educational attainment were the primary factors explaining poverty in China. Structural issues such as inequality of opportunities ranked fifth in the causes of poverty, while an unfair economic structure ranked ninth.
In the 2023 survey, there was a significant shift in respondents’ views. In 2004, individuals believed poverty was mainly due to personal inadequacy, with inequality of opportunities ranking sixth. By 2023, respondents ranked inequality of opportunities as the top factor, while personal inadequacy dropped to sixth place.
As one Chinese netizen expressed on social media: “Times have changed, they are no longer in our favor.”
Chinese people now widely believe that structural factors are the most important explanation for poverty. Respondents pointed to inequality of opportunities, education, and unfair economic structures as the most critical factors. Regarding Chinese education, uneven opportunities represent both a root cause and manifestation of pervasive and enduring inequality.
When asked about reasons that could help individuals become wealthy, responses mirror those for poverty issues.
In surveys conducted from 2004 to 2014, respondents highlighted human capital as the primary factor, including abilities, talents, hard work, and a good education.
However, in the 2023 survey, these aspects of human capital declined to the fourth, fifth, and seventh positions. Meanwhile, structural factors such as having strong social networks, more opportunities for growth, and an unfair economic structure became more critical.
The survey indicates a significant shift in Chinese perceptions regarding the causes of wealth and poverty.
One interview question was “a person becomes rich or poor based on themselves (their connections, resources).” In 2004, 25% of respondents agreed with this statement, compared to 48% in 2023.
Additionally, the agreement with the statement “in China, hard work always pays off” decreased from 62% to 28%.
The report suggests these trends indicate a declining confidence among Chinese in elite governance and equitable services provided by the economy to all citizens.
Compared to previous years, the proportion of respondents in 2023 who believed their family’s economic situation had worsened had increased.
“Life is really tough. Having expertise may lead to a better life, but it’s very hard to become extremely wealthy. As for the future, it’s unpredictable, but deep in my heart, I have no hope; I only wish for a better life. Every generation faces its own misfortunes,” lamented a Chinese netizen.
Many observers are concerned about the correlation between inequality in socialist countries and political stability. The latest survey shows that Chinese people’s sense of unease is deepening, and feelings of injustice are becoming more widespread.
Similar views on social inequality emerged in former socialist countries such as Russia, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland during political transitions. This was also evident in authoritarian regimes that underwent political changes during the “Arab Spring,” with Morocco as an example, where negative perceptions of inequality increased in the years between 2000 and 2008.
There are indications of a significant increase in the number of Chinese migrants in 2023, with interception of Chinese immigrants at the southern U.S. border showing a nine-fold increase from the previous year. Data from the first half of 2024 suggests that attempts by Chinese immigrants to illegally enter the U.S. may further rise.
This study illustrates a notable emotional shift in China over the past twenty years, reflecting significant changes in the economy as well as people’s perceptions and expectations.
The results of these surveys suggest that the Chinese government will face overarching challenges in the future.
A post-2000s netizen summarized online: “The growth of the post-2000s generation has coincided with China’s economic development. Unfortunately, while they witnessed economic growth, they did not truly own it. When they are about to enter the market to participate in social division and share the economic benefits, they encounter a turning point in the Chinese economy. The economic downturn, the decline of various industries, and soaring housing prices bring them only unemployment upon graduation, a sense of endless despair.”