A significant new study has revealed that the dramatic decline in China’s fertility rates during the 1990s closely correlates with the strict enforcement of the one-child policy by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Among the various policy initiatives, one particularly noteworthy measure was the linking of local officials’ promotions to family planning targets, which contributed to a sharp fall in birth rates.
The English-language news website Phys.org reported on November 13 that China’s “one-child policy” is widely regarded as one of the most stringent public policies in modern history. However, there has been longstanding academic debate regarding the extent to which this policy has facilitated such a steep drop in China’s fertility rates.
Initially implemented in 1979 and 1980, the one-child policy did not result in an immediate significant change in the birth rate. It wasn’t until a decade later, in the 1990s, that fertility rates saw a dramatic decline, plummeting by over one-third from approximately 2.5 children per woman to 1.6 children, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain the population.
A study published by Stanford University in the journal Nature highlighted the fact that “since the 1970s, China has experienced three substantial declines in fertility rates. However, the timing of these declines does not completely align with the implementation of the one-child policy, raising an important question: What exactly caused these drops in fertility rates, especially the sharp decline observed in the 1990s?”
The study found that the sharp drop in fertility was largely rooted in the stronger incentive mechanisms faced by local government officials when enforcing the one-child policy. In May 1991, the CCP formally propagated the “one-vote veto” system nationwide. This system stipulated that if local officials failed to meet family planning targets, their career advancement would be severely restricted. This created potent personal incentives for local officials to enforce the one-child policy rigorously.
By comparing the chronological differences in the implementation of the one-child policy across various provinces, researchers concluded that this policy was one of the main reasons for the drop in fertility rate during the 1990s, causing the total fertility rate in China to decline to less than replacement level.
The study further analyzed the impacts of this system on public reproductive behavior. Results indicated that after the implementation of the one-vote veto system, the usage of intrauterine devices (IUDs) surged, particularly those recommended by local officials as contraceptive methods.
Additionally, the study noted an increase in the number of abortions following the introduction of this policy.
Official bodies of the CCP, such as the former National Population and Family Planning Commission and the Health and Planning Commission, have publicly claimed that since the widespread enforcement of family planning in the 1970s until the mid-2000s, the policy has led to a reduction of over 400 million births in China.
Although the policy was relaxed in 2016 to allow couples to have two children, and further eased in 2021 to permit three children, China’s total fertility rate continues to be one of the lowest globally.
China is now facing an imminent demographic crisis, with the United Nations projecting that by the year 2100, the Chinese population could shrink to half its current size. The one-child policy, initiated in 1979, has severely hindered economic growth.
A study by Goldman Sachs indicated that China’s population began to decline in 2022. For decades, the Chinese government has systematically exaggerated birth rates and total population figures. After dropping below the replacement level of 2.1 in 1991, China’s total fertility rate has continued to decline, now estimated at 0.8 children per woman.
According to the Financial Times, the speed of China’s population decline is expected to far exceed that of Japan, which could severely impact China’s economic outlook.
Children are considered “super-consumers” within families, driving a significant portion of household expenditure. The country’s declining birthrate has led to a notable decrease in the child population across multiple generations, severely undermining domestic consumption in China.
With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 21.6 trillion dollars, China is only two-thirds the size of the U.S. economy. The Chinese government reports an annual GDP per capita of approximately 13,800 dollars, about 15% of that of the United States, although the actual figure may be even lower.
By this standard, countries such as Turkey, Russia, and Kazakhstan are reported to be wealthier than China.