A recent report published by the American think tanks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) on November 6, has raised concerns regarding the People’s Republic of China (PRC) potentially conducting large-scale military exercises that remain unannounced. These exercises seem to simulate a scenario of surrounding and isolating Taiwan. Taiwan’s National Security Council Secretary-General, Wu Chao-hsieh, has pointed out that over 100 vessels from the Chinese Navy and Coast Guard are currently active in the Western Pacific, involving three major military zones of the Chinese armed forces.
The report emphasizes that the number of deployed vessels and their geographical coverage far exceed the military exercises held around Taiwan at the end of last year. It is suggested that the Chinese military could be rehearsing tactics to sever Taiwan’s connections to external air and maritime communications, as well as to prevent external military forces from intervening in any potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
In a post on the social media platform X on November 3, Wu Chao-hsieh highlighted the significant presence of over 100 Chinese vessels in the region. He assured the public that Taiwan remains vigilant, stating, “We won’t provoke, but we won’t bow to any pressure,” which reflects Taiwan’s resolve amidst escalating tensions.
According to data released by Wu, ISW analysis indicates that Chinese military forces are primarily concentrated in two regions. The first is the deployment of four task forces stationed between Taiwan and Guam, which includes forces from the Eastern, Northern, and Southern military zones of the Chinese military, notably featuring the Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group. The second region, closer to Taiwan, sees at least six Chinese Coast Guard vessels and an undetermined number of naval ships.
The report also notes that the Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group entered the Western Pacific through the Balintang Channel, located in the Philippines, between October 23 and 26. Satellite imagery from November 2 revealed that another aircraft carrier, the Fujian, had departed from its base in Sanya, Hainan, potentially heading towards waters near southern Taiwan.
The ISW points out that the deployment involves two aircraft carriers and at least four missile cruisers. It is uncommon for major surface vessels from three military zones to conduct joint operations in the open sea, which may indicate that they are rehearsing for joint operational coordination across different zones.
The report indicates that this model of deploying major ships at sea while integrating naval and coast guard forces near Taiwan aligns with past Chinese military exercises. It is likely that the current exercises are intended to simulate how to thwart external military forces during a Taiwan Strait conflict.
Despite this series of military maneuvers coinciding with the lead-up to Taiwan’s local elections on November 28, a report from the Liberty Times quotes Taiwan’s defense officials suggesting that the recent Chinese activities in the Western Pacific are not solely directed at Taiwan. It may also be related to regional military dynamics along the First Island Chain and an attempt to demonstrate a counterbalance to the United States.
Historical context shows that the Chinese government has previously announced and named its large-scale military exercises targeting Taiwan, four times in the past. However, as of the report’s release on November 6, no public announcements have been made from Beijing regarding corresponding military exercises for the current large-scale troop deployment.
The report speculates that the Chinese Communist Party may be trying to frame the extensive military presence around Taiwan and in the Western Pacific as a routine activity, aiming to create the impression that their military can isolate Taiwan at any given moment.
Moreover, the Chinese military may also seek to showcase its capability to pivot from a peacetime deployment to combat operations swiftly. This move intends to reduce the warning time for its adversaries in case of preparations for blockading or invading Taiwan.
Researchers assert that these military activities may have dual purposes: on one hand, they could serve to prepare for actual operations to isolate Taiwan, and on the other, they aim to undermine the Taiwanese public’s confidence in their own defensive capabilities, raising doubts about whether the United States and other partners would provide assistance in a timely manner.
Data from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense between October 30 and November 8, spanning ten consecutive days, indicates that the activity of Chinese military aircraft has shown several spikes. On November 1, 32 sorties were detected, while on November 3, the numbers surged to 49, including 31 aircraft entering Taiwan’s central, southwestern, and eastern air zones.
Following this, the number of Chinese military aircraft decreased, yet naval vessels persist in their activity around the Taiwan Strait. On November 7, 10 Chinese ships were detected, and the latest report on November 8 indicated that within 24 hours leading up to 6 AM that morning, four Chinese aircraft, six naval vessels, and two government ships were monitored.
Additionally, the Ministry of National Defense issued press releases on October 31 and November 4, noting Chinese military operations under the guise of “joint combat readiness patrols,” during which 22 and 14 sorties of military aircraft were detected, respectively, collaborating with naval ships. Among these incidents, 18 and 12 aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and its extension.
According to reports from Central News Agency on November 7, Su Tzu-yun, director of the Institute for Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s National Defense Security Research Institute, suggested that the recent deployments by China may be a response to the U.S.-Japan “Keen Sword 27” joint military exercises occurring in Japan’s southwestern islands. This act serves simultaneously to rehearse measures for controlling Taiwan and practicing “anti-access” military operations.
In light of these developments, Chen Shih-min, an associate professor at National Taiwan University’s Department of Political Science, cautioned that Taiwan must guard against the risk of a sudden attack from China and the transition from training to combat.
He emphasized that the lack of an announced military exercise by China might also involve diplomatic considerations, including the desire to avoid provoking controversy ahead of a previously scheduled meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders.