On November 3, a significant meeting took place in Beijing between Zhang Shengmin, recently appointed as a member of the Central Political Bureau and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of China, and Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. This meeting has stirred curiosity and speculation, particularly regarding the absence of China’s Defense Minister, Dong Jun, who traditionally would have participated in welcoming a foreign counterpart.
Reports suggest that Dong Jun has not been seen in public for over a month, leading to rumors that he may have been taken for questioning, although these claims remain unverified.
Zhang Shengmin’s meeting with Belousov occurred at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, marking Zhang’s first public engagement since his promotion during the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee. The timing of this meeting is noteworthy as it deviates from established norms of protocol within the Chinese military, where the Defense Minister usually engages with visiting foreign defense ministers.
In recent years, Dong Jun’s participation in meetings with foreign defense officials had become quite routine. For instance, during a visit from Serbia’s Defense Minister, Milos Vasovic, Dong met with him one day prior to a similar meeting organized by then Deputy Chairman Zhang Youxia. In another case, in April 2025, both Zhang Youxia and Dong Jun met separately with the Indonesian Defense Minister, Prabowo Subianto. Similarly, last October, Dong Jun held talks in Beijing with Russian Defense Minister Belousov, a day before Zhang Youxia’s own meeting with the same official.
Moreover, during the 2025 Xiangshan Forum, Zhang and Dong employed a division of labor, meeting with various foreign defense ministers concurrently— a testament to their collaborative roles within China’s military diplomacy.
Dong Jun’s last public appearance was in mid-September 2026 at the Xiangshan Forum, where he delivered a keynote speech, followed by participation in events commemorating the 99th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army on August 1.
Notably, Dong Jun was absent from the recent expanded ASEAN defense ministers’ meeting held in the Philippines, where representation was instead provided by a defense attaché from the Chinese embassy. Analysts speculate that his absence coincided with the timeline of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, raising more questions regarding his current status. Rumors circulating online hint at a potential crisis involving Dong Jun, further intensifying the mystery surrounding his whereabouts.
Former Shanghai entrepreneur and commentator Hu Liren recently stated on social media that Russian Defense Minister Belousov’s visit was specifically aimed at engaging with Dong Jun as his counterpart. Zhang Shengmin, now in a more senior role as Vice Chairman, would only meet with Belousov if Dong had been functioning normally.
In his inquiries among contacts in Beijing, Hu mentioned that reports indicated Dong Jun might have been taken away from home for investigation approximately a month ago. He noted that the current leadership is particularly cautious about detaining individuals closely associated with Xi Jinping, which has left Dong in a precarious situation.
Hu revealed insights from some military insiders suggesting that communication with Dong Jun has ceased, stating, “Dong Jun has not appeared in his office for several weeks, and no one dares to inquire about his situation.”
While these rumors remain uncorroborated, the official records on the Ministry of National Defense’s website still indicate Dong Jun’s ongoing activities. After the downfall of his predecessor, Li Shangfu, Dong was appointed as the new Minister of Defense on December 29, 2023, becoming the first Minister of Defense in the history of the Chinese Communist Party to have a naval background.
There are speculations surrounding Dong’s appointment, given his background from Shandong province and his close associations with prominent figures like Peng Liyuan, the wife of Xi Jinping. However, many believe that it was the former director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, Miao Hua, who recommended Dong for the role, suggesting a network of trust within the ranks of Xi’s inner circle.
Since taking office, Dong Jun has not been elevated to the positions of member of the Central Military Commission or State Council, making him one of the lowest-ranking Defense Ministers in the history of the CPC.
The Financial Times reported in November 2024 that both current and former U.S. officials indicated there was a growing investigation into Dong Jun by Chinese authorities. This allegation was firmly denied by a spokesperson during the following day’s routine press briefing by the Ministry of National Defense.
Currently, the international prediction market Polymarket reflects public sentiment, with a trending topic exploring “Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?” Among the various contenders mentioned, Dong Jun has been assigned the highest probability of becoming a target for purging, estimated at around 20% in betting odds by May of this year.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the movements of figures like Dong Jun will likely remain under close scrutiny, revealing deeper currents within the Chinese political and military establishments.