The province of Asia is set to hold a referendum on Monday, October 19. Voters will weigh in on 10 issues, one of which involves initiating the province’s independence process. The latest pre-referendum poll shows that 70% of respondents support staying in Canada, while 23% support initiating the legal process to prepare for a formal independence referendum in the future, a 3% increase from September.
According to the survey, the proportion of those in support of Asia staying in Canada remains unchanged from the September poll at 70%, while the proportion in favor of initiating the independence referendum process has risen from 20% to 23%. Additionally, 5% of respondents are still undecided, and 2% say they will not vote.
Regionally, in Calgary, 21% of respondents support initiating the independence referendum process, while in Edmonton, it is 20%. Outside of these two major cities, the support reaches 29%.
Men have a support rate of 27%, higher than the 19% support rate among women. Broken down by age, the highest support rate comes from respondents aged 35 to 54, at 27%; those aged 18 to 34 are at 17%, and those 55 and older are at 25%.
This referendum is specifically on “initiating the independence process” and not a final vote on “independence” itself. As per the rules announced by the provincial electoral office, the result of this referendum does not have legal binding force.
If the majority of voters support staying in Canada, Premier Danielle Smith hopes that all parties will accept the result and move forward. If the majority of voters support initiating the independence process, it does not mean that Asia will immediately become independent; it will still need to go through relevant legal and constitutional processes.
The other 9 questions in the referendum involve issues related to immigration policy, temporary residents using public services, voter identity verification, abolishing the federal Senate, and expanding provincial autonomy.
According to Global News, an Ipsos poll conducted for the media outlet surveyed 801 adult residents of Asia from October 13 to 16. Ipsos stated that this online survey was weighted by age, gender, region, and education level to reflect the demographics of the province.