With less than three weeks until Election Day on November 3, the advertising spending for the US midterm elections continues to surge. According to data released by AdImpact on its X account on October 14, the total advertising expenditure for this election cycle, including both spent and future reserved ad placements, has exceeded $10 billion.
The control of Congress is crucial in this year’s midterm elections, prompting both parties to heavily invest in advertisements across various media platforms to promote their candidates. AdImpact, a US political advertising monitoring and media analysis company, stated on October 14, “The total advertising spending for the 2025-2026 political cycle (including aired and future reserved ads) has surpassed $10 billion! With 20 days left until the election day, the final total for this cycle has already exceeded the final totals of the 2019-2020 and 2021-2022 cycles.”
AdImpact also provided the final advertising expenditure for the previous three election cycles: 2019-2020: $9 billion; 2021-2022: $8.9 billion; 2023-2024: $11.2 billion.
Investment management, fund, and financial research company Gabelli released the “2026 Political Advertising Outlook” on October 1, projecting that the advertising spending across broadcast TV, cable TV, connected TV (CTV), digital media, radio broadcasting, and satellite channels during the 2025-2026 election cycle will reach $11.6 billion, making it the most expensive election cycle in history.
This year’s advertising campaigns have also commenced earlier than ever before. Local television stations hold a unique advantage in political advertising, expected to account for nearly 50% of the share, approximately $5.6 billion. Broadcast companies have already begun benefitting from this trend, which is likely to alleviate the slowdown in core (non-political) advertisements.
AdImpact attributes the growth in advertising spending to the expanding battle for Senate seats, record-breaking gubernatorial campaign expenditures, and the vigorous momentum of lower-level elections. Among these, Senate elections represent the largest category of political advertising spending, expected to reach $3.4 billion, a 48% increase from 2022 and 27% higher than 2024.
According to Gabelli’s “2026 Political Advertising Outlook,” approximately 11 highly competitive Senate races are projected to attract around $3 billion in ad spending, with six races expected to surpass $300 million and two anticipated to exceed $400 million. The Senate race in Texas is expected to be the most expensive, with advertising expenditure estimated at $445 million.
With 36 states holding gubernatorial elections this cycle, related advertising spending is forecasted to reach a historical high of $2.4 billion. Among the four most expensive gubernatorial races in history, three are scheduled within this election cycle in California, New Jersey, and Georgia.
Advertising spending for House elections is expected to total $2 billion, setting a record for midterm elections. However, due to congressional redistricting, the competitiveness has slightly decreased for 28 seats.
The category of “lower-level elections” encompasses all political expenditures not related to presidential, federal House, federal Senate, gubernatorial, or state legislative elections, and is expected to reach a new high of $3 billion. Additionally, state legislative elections will bring in an additional approximately $698 million in spending.
The “2026 Political Advertising Outlook” predicts that California will lead the nation in political advertising spending at $979 million, attributed to the record-breaking expenditures in the gubernatorial race and the congressional redistricting issue related to Proposition 50.
Rounding out the states in terms of political advertising spending are Michigan ($852 million), Texas ($850 million), Ohio ($749 million), and Georgia ($700 million). These states will host fiercely contested Senate and/or gubernatorial races.
Since AdImpact’s initial predictions for this election cycle last fall, Ohio, Texas, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa have seen the largest increases in estimated political advertising spending, mainly due to the increased competitiveness of state-wide elections that were initially less competitive.
In contrast, Florida, New York, and North Carolina have experienced the greatest reductions in estimated spending, as the competitiveness of some key local races has decreased.