On October 13, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its “World Economic Outlook” report, raising the global economic growth forecast for 2026 from 3.0% in July to 3.1%, while maintaining the 2027 growth forecast at 3.4%. However, the expected growth rate for 2026 is still lower than the 3.5% in 2025.
The report attributed the slight upward revision in global economic growth forecasts to the continued growth in investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Economies related to the artificial intelligence technology and hardware industry chains, such as the United States, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand, received varying degrees of support.
IMF’s Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro stated that the global economy is showing resilience, but this resilience is approaching its limits, and countries need to shift from dealing with immediate impacts to rebuilding economic resilience, including restoring fiscal policy space and enhancing supply-side risk resilience.
In the United States, the IMF expects economic growth of 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Private consumption, tax cuts, and investments in artificial intelligence will provide support, but some of the boost from artificial intelligence investment may be offset by related import demand.
The Eurozone’s economic growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward from 0.9% in July to 1.1%, primarily driven by increased investment in artificial intelligence, participation in the artificial intelligence industry chain (such as chemical production in Germany), and increased defense spending in EU countries. The UK’s economic growth forecast for 2026 also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%, with increased investment in artificial intelligence being a key factor.
China’s economic growth forecast was slightly downgraded. The IMF expects China’s economic growth to be 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, both 0.1 percentage points lower than the forecasts in July. The report noted that while China’s exports have been strong, weak domestic demand and rising oil prices have increased economic pressures.
India remains the fastest-growing country among major economies globally. The IMF predicts that India’s economy will grow by 7.0% in both 2026 and 2027. Strong domestic demand, service sector activities, and investments in artificial intelligence are the main supporting factors.
IMF warned that if the situation worsens in the Middle East, with oil prices remaining high, global economic growth could face greater impact. The institution’s baseline forecast assumes the reopening of the Hormuz Strait in March 2027 and a general recovery of global shipping by October of the same year. The report projects average oil prices of $96 per barrel in 2026 and $87 per barrel in 2027.
In an adverse scenario where conflict escalates, oil prices rise to $130 per barrel and continue through the first quarter of 2027, global economic growth rates could decrease by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and 2027, respectively, while global inflation in 2027 could rise by an additional 1.1 percentage points to reach 5.2%.
Gulf countries are experiencing particularly severe impacts. The IMF significantly downgraded Saudi Arabia’s economic growth forecast for 2026 from a previous forecast of 1.7% in July to a contraction of 3.3%. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE are also expected to contract by 7.6%, 16%, 16.7%, 15.6%, and 3.9%, respectively, in 2026.
The development of artificial intelligence also faces uncertainties. The IMF noted that if artificial intelligence technology becomes more widely adopted and investments accelerate further, global GDP could increase by an additional 0.6% by 2029, with the United States and China reaping most of the benefits.
Conversely, if the productivity gains from artificial intelligence fail to materialize, leading to a significant decline in investments, US GDP could directly decrease by 0.8%. Asian tech exporting countries would also suffer secondary impacts, with the GDP of related economies collectively potentially decreasing by up to 0.4% by 2028.
The IMF stated that this transformation could lead to a significant drop in asset prices, tighten financial conditions, and cause a sharp contraction in consumption, particularly in the US. Rising global bond yields could further suppress economic activity, potentially resulting in a global economic output reduction of 1.1% by 2028, with US economic output decreasing by 1.8%.
The report also highlighted that public debt levels in developed economies remain high, increasing the risk of a significant rise in government financing costs. The IMF urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers, formulate credible medium-term plans, and gradually bring debt under sustainable levels.
Additionally, the potential extreme weather events triggered by the El Niño phenomenon were listed as downward risks facing the global economy. The IMF forecasts that the overall global consumer inflation rate will reach 4.7% in 2026, decreasing to 4.1% in 2027.