Italy’s National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) warned on Monday, August 31, that by the year 2050, Italy’s population will decrease by nearly 4 million. This demographic shift, characterized by an increase in the proportion of elderly people, is expected to weaken the country’s economy and welfare system sustainability.
According to ISTAT’s latest population projections, Italy’s resident population will decline from 58.9 million in early 2025 to 55 million by 2050, further dropping to 45.8 million by 2080.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who took office in 2022, previously emphasized the need to improve the birth rate as a top priority for the government.
Since 2008, Italy has experienced a consistent decline in its birth rate, with only about 355,000 newborns last year, marking the lowest level since Italy’s unification in 1861. Meanwhile, due to the aging population, the number of deaths has been on the rise.
In 2025, approximately 652,000 people in Italy passed away, significantly surpassing the number of births.
ISTAT predicts that as the post-war baby boomer generation enters old age, annual death rates will continue to increase, peaking at approximately 869,000 people in 2058. The aging population will become one of Italy’s most significant structural challenges in the future.
By 2050, ISTAT forecasts that the population aged 65 and above in Italy will rise from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5%.
Simultaneously, the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) will decrease from 63.4% to 55.3%.
This indicates that Italy may face a scenario where there are fewer working-age individuals to support an increasing number of retired individuals in the future. ISTAT’s warning highlights that the shrinking workforce combined with a rising retiree population will pose new challenges to Italy’s economy and welfare system.
Population decline will not be evenly distributed across Italy. ISTAT predicts that the economically weaker southern regions of Italy will experience more severe population loss.
The population in the southern regions is expected to decrease from around 19.7 million in 2025 to approximately 16.7 million by 2050, representing a reduction of about 3 million people over 25 years.
In contrast, the central and northern regions of Italy will see relatively smaller declines in population. In 2025, the population growth rate in the north was 2.2 per thousand, remaining stable in the central region, while the southern region saw a decrease of 3.1 per thousand people.