After conducting limited airstrikes against Iran on April 18th, Israel and Iran currently show no signs of further escalating retaliation. It is believed that Israel has at least destroyed an S-300 surface-to-air missile radar near an Iranian nuclear facility, indicating the capability to further strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran has attempted to downplay the situation, stating that they will not retaliate further. Iran should realize that its air defense and strike capabilities are far inferior to Israel’s, forcing them to back down. Iranian air defense missiles are ineffective, similar to the Chinese systems, which would likely struggle to defend against American or coalition airstrikes in the event of war.
On April 13th, Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles in a large-scale mixed airstrike against Israel, but 99% of them were intercepted by the coalition and Israel. On April 18th, Israel carried out a relatively restrained retaliatory airstrike.
According to reports, Israeli warplanes launched at least three air-to-ground missiles in an unidentified airspace outside Iran, targeting an Iranian airbase. Satellite image analysis reveals that Iran had deployed an S-300PMU2 surface-to-air missile battalion at the location, and Israel’s airstrike likely damaged the combat radar of the S-300PMU2 system.
The missile battalion is situated in Isfahan, central Iran, and is part of the air defense system for nearby nuclear facilities, including Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility. The International Atomic Energy Agency, Western media, and Iranian media have confirmed that Israel did not target any Iranian nuclear facilities in the airstrike.
Israel has the capability to destroy Iran’s best air defense missile radars and could potentially conduct airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel should warn Iran that any further provocations may result in their nuclear facilities being targeted. Amid calls from the U.S. and the West, Israel ultimately carried out limited airstrikes in response to Iran’s large-scale mixed airstrike against Israel. This way, both sides do not need to further escalate the conflict, serving the interests of all parties involved.
Iran has denied the effectiveness of Israel’s airstrikes but many heard at least three explosions. Iran claims that its air defense system shot down a small drone over Isfahan instead of a missile, causing the aerial blasts. Iran has not confirmed any external attacks, only acknowledging internal breaches.
The possibility of Israel launching small drones for airstrikes in Iran is unlikely, given the distance between the two countries being over 900 kilometers. Israel’s stealth aircraft and air-to-ground missiles should confidently penetrate Iran’s air defense system, making the use of slow drones unnecessary, potentially exposing their airstrike operations in advance and losing attack stealth and surprise.
Iran has been developing nuclear weapons, causing concern for the U.S. and the West. Israel is particularly worried as Iran’s nuclear weapons could target them. Israel has been working to prevent Iran’s nuclear weapon projects, and the airstrike targeted the air defense missile radars near Iranian nuclear facilities to demonstrate the ability to strike Iran’s nuclear sites effectively.
U.S. officials revealed that they had received prior notification from Israel, confirming that the airstrike did not target nuclear facilities. Iran temporarily lost one air defense system, but the nuclear facilities were not damaged, prompting Iran to cover up the truth to save face.
Israel had no comment on the issue and both sides should temporarily cease hostilities after their exchange. The disparity in this round of engagement is evident, with Iran struggling to penetrate the coalition and Israel’s air defense network, while Israel’s limited airstrikes made it difficult for Iran to defend against, rendering the best S-300 air defense missile ineffective, with its radar destroyed.
The S-300 is a series of long-range surface-to-air missiles developed by the former Soviet Union. Russia has continuously upgraded the system and exported it to several countries, including Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, and Vietnam.
China is the largest foreign buyer of the S-300 system. Since the 1990s, they have imported the S-300PMU basic model, the S-300PMU1, and the S-300PMU2 model, totaling about 2,500 missiles. Each S-300 missile battalion consists of four launch units and 16 launch vehicles. China paid a high price for these acquisitions, with the final transaction rumored to reach up to $4 billion.
Iran acquired equipment for four S-300PMU2 missile battalions in 2016, with each battalion including one target acquisition radar, one engagement radar, and four launchers. Iran also has domestically produced air defense missile systems but lags behind, as the S-300 is considered their best air defense missile.
Israel’s destruction of the engagement radar of the S-300 system rendered one missile battalion ineffective.
The S-300 air defense missile system has faced criticism multiple times. In 2020, the Syrian military claimed that the radar of the S-300 system had limited detection capabilities, making it difficult to withstand Israeli airstrikes.
On May 17, 2022, Israel conducted airstrikes in Syria, where a Russian-operated S-300 missile launched one missile at an Israeli F-16 fighter jet, marking the first combat record of the S-300. Reports indicated that a total of 13 SAM missiles were launched by the Russian military, but no aircraft was hit. Israel later confirmed that a missile was launched by the Russian S-300 system but did not pose a threat to Israeli aircraft, even stating that Israeli jets were not present in the area.
After the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, the Russian S-300 missile system saw little action, while the upgraded S-400 system remained largely idle. On April 13, 2022, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the Moscow cruiser, was sunk by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles, with the S-300 air defense missiles onboard ineffective. The Russian military has fully transitioned to the S-400 air defense missile, as the S-300 is considered outdated and often utilized as a surface-to-surface missile against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
Iran, receiving military aid from Russia, was promised S-400 air defense missiles and Su-35 fighters, but the delivery has been delayed. With weak air defense capabilities, Iran struggles to fend off Israeli airstrikes and avoid escalating tensions with Israel in the face of their nuclear facilities, resorting to deception and bravado.
Israel’s airstrike that destroyed the S-300 missile radar not only embarrassed Iran and Russia but also China, the largest external user of the S-300 system. China’s military, preparing to challenge the U.S. and coalition forces, may face vulnerabilities in their air defense systems. The setback faced by Iran’s S-300 air defense system reflects the possible weaknesses in China’s air defense system, with the S-300 and its variants comprising the mainstay of China’s air defense capabilities.
China has received 25 S-300 missile battalions from Russia, initially deployed in Beijing, then near the Taiwan Strait, and later to major coastal cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dalian, Qingdao, and Sanya. The Red Flag-9 air defense missile, often boasted about by China, is a copy of the S-300; the improved Red Flag-9B has a range of 250 kilometers but still resembles the S-300 in design.
China has potentially deployed a total of 60 missile battalions of S-300 and Red Flag-9 (B), with the naval version deployed on the 055 and 052D destroyers as primary air defense weapons.
Israel’s domestically produced air-to-ground missiles, likely incorporating U.S. missile technology, easily penetrate the S-300 air defense system. If China were to engage in a war rashly, the S-300 and Red Flag-9 (B) systems may struggle to interdict U.S. actions, including AGM-158 air-to-ground missiles launched from aircraft, as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles from naval vessels and land-based units, rendering China’s S-300 and Red Flag-9 (B) systems ineffective. U.S. airstrikes would likely first target various air defense radars of China, rendering their air defense system useless before further launching close-range airstrikes.
China has acknowledged that to evade detection by U.S. reconnaissance aircraft, some radars are intentionally kept inactive, indicating China’s awareness of its vulnerabilities.
With limited air defense capabilities, S-300, Red Flag-9 (B), and other systems still not available to the Chinese army, China developed the Red Flag-16 air defense missile based on the Soviet OA system and S-300, serving as a lower-tier model between short-range and medium-range air defense missiles.
The naval version of the Red Flag-16 is deployed in the 32 vertical launch units of the 054A frigate, serving as a primary air defense weapon. Despite being called a frigate, the 054A is arguably unable to protect itself adequately.
China realized the inadequacy of the S-300, Red Flag-9, and Red Flag-16 air defense missiles, necessitating the import of Russia’s S-400 missiles. The S-400, an upgrade of the S-300 and also known as the S-300PMU-3, entered service with the Russian military in 2007, with China being its first external buyer. In 2014, China signed an agreement for the S-400 air defense missile system at a total cost of about $30 billion for the first batch of six missile battalions.
Russia began delivering the S-400 missiles to China in 2017 and attempted to sell a second batch, which China declined. China discovered that the S-400 was not significantly more advanced than the S-300, losing interest during the manufacturing process. Ukraine’s continuous attacks on Russian military targets have not been deterred by the S-400, reducing its appeal to potential foreign buyers.
Despite being touted as capable of intercepting missiles, the S-300 has shown unreliable results in practical combat, often more relied upon to attack enemy aircraft rather than intercept missiles, proving less effective against stealth aircraft.
In 2017, the Israeli Air Force acquired F-35 stealth fighters, promptly deploying them in combat. Reports indicated that three Israeli F-35 fighters undertook a test mission flying round-trip between the Iranian capital Tehran and Tel Aviv without being detected. Upon learning of this, the Iranian Air Force chief and Revolutionary Guard commander were dismissed.
Israel’s F-35 fighters have reportedly conducted multiple airstrikes within Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq targeting pro-Iranian militia, where even air defense systems like the S-300 fail to detect them effectively, with air raid warnings sounding only after the explosions from the airstrikes. If Israel were to prepare airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, they would likely utilize the F-35 fighters. Equipped with long-range air-to-ground missiles, Israel’s F-35 may lack the payload capacity to sufficiently destroy Iranian facilities, making the destruction of S-300 radars an adequate measure, though additional firepower would be beneficial. The F-35’s internal weapons bay can carry two air-to-air missiles and 1000-pound precision-guided bombs, with successful tests showing 2000-pound bomb deployment, ensuring more effective ground target destruction.
While Israel’s recent airstrike was limited in scope and did not involve F-35 penetration into Iranian territory, should the conflict escalate, F-35 fighters could be utilized more extensively, overwhelming Iran’s air defense system.
China’s S-300, Red Flag-9, and other air defense systems similarly struggle to identify U.S. stealth fighters. Coastal military bases, gathering points, and naval vessels would likely face challenges defending against U.S. stealth aircraft. U.S. F-35 fighters can also carry B-61 tactical nuclear warheads, while B-2 and forthcoming B-21 bombers would execute deep penetration strikes, targeting missile bases and potentially conducting decapitation missions against China.
Israel’s airstrike on Iran once again exposed the real capabilities of the S-300 air defense system, shedding light on China’s air defense capabilities. Besides Iran and Russia, China has emerged as another potential major loser in this scenario.