Xi Jinping’s goal is to achieve the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China, challenging the United States as the foremost military power. However, it is highly likely that the military under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is merely a “paper tiger.”
The PLA is not capable of effectively engaging in combat with the US military, let alone emerging victorious. The lack of combat experience, a history of backing down under pressure, poor equipment quality, outdated technology, reliance on foreign technology, recruitment issues, and the incapacity for long-distance engagements contribute to the perception of the PLA as a “paper tiger.” Despite being considered the third most powerful military force globally, these shortcomings suggest that its actual strength may be overestimated, and it lacks real combat capabilities.
In 1979, the CCP regime invaded northern Vietnam as a response to Vietnam overthrowing the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia. This conflict proved to be a costly and humiliating experience for the CCP, highlighting deficiencies in military tactics, logistics support, and overall preparedness. This was the last comprehensive military conflict the PLA participated in.
Recently, clashes between Chinese and Indian troops in the disputed Himalayan border region, notably in the 2020 Galwan Valley conflict, resulted in brutal hand-to-hand combat. Reports indicated more Chinese casualties than Indian casualties, raising doubts about China’s military training and preparedness.
The reliability and readiness of the PLA have been questioned for demonstrating a fear of casualties in combat situations. For instance, in July 11, 2016, the Washington-based non-governmental organization Center for Civilians in Conflict reported that Chinese peacekeepers in South Sudan abandoned their camp during a militia attack, leaving behind weapons and ammunition, leading to criticism for failing to protect civilians and endangering other peacekeepers.
Chinese-manufactured equipment has quality issues, including missile launch failures and aircraft malfunctions such as the JF-17 “Thunder” fighter jet experiencing operational problems and crash incidents, casting doubt on the reliability of Chinese weapons.
Chinese military technology is generally considered inferior to Western countries. The heavy reliance on foreign technology, particularly Russian technology, indicates insufficient technological self-sufficiency, thus limiting effectiveness and innovation.
Despite significant progress, analysts believe that the PLA lags behind the US military in critical areas such as stealth technology, aviation electronics, cyber warfare, and advanced missile systems. This dependence has also raised concerns about China posing a spy threat to the US, as China attempts to steal advanced technology.
The PLA faces serious recruitment issues in attracting high-quality personnel. The problem of personnel quality, including inadequate training and subpar educational standards, disciplinary issues, and low morale, obstructs the PLA’s goal of modernization. The increasingly complex equipment and weapon systems require higher intellect, education, and training levels. Candidates with no alternative options generally have lower education levels and lack motivation, leading to low morale within the PLA.
Xi Jinping aims to establish a blue water navy – one capable of expanding maritime power into distant and deep-sea regions with expeditionary combat capabilities, to enhance China’s dominance globally. However, the CCP regime would face severe challenges in wars far from its mainland. While the Chinese military boasts strong capabilities in regions like Taiwan and the South China Sea, this focus restricts Beijing’s global power projection capability. Compared to the US, the lack of overseas bases weakens logistics and supply chains, limiting the PLA’s global operational capacity. Moreover, the centralized command and control system of the CCP regime leads to slow decision-making and lack of flexibility.
China’s alliances are not as strong or reliable as those of the US from mature alliances like NATO. Due to negative perceptions on China’s human rights, strict COVID-19 pandemic control measures, provocative actions in the South China Sea, and border disputes with almost all neighboring countries, the CCP regime struggles to wield soft power. Communist China has only one formal ally – North Korea. Another ally is Russia, which faces severe sanctions and is embroiled in conflict with Ukraine.
In recent years, the CCP regime has intensified military exercises in Asia. However, US observations of the Chinese Navy indicate a gap in military strength compared to experienced and technologically advanced forces.
As Xi Jinping prioritizes modernizing and expanding the military, whether the CCP remains a paper tiger in the present or future remains to be seen. However, from a lack of experience to an inability to wage war in distant regions, many issues diminish Xi Jinping’s aspirations of invincibility. Furthermore, China’s military modernization and expansion heavily rely on continued economic growth. Impending aging population crisis and economic vulnerabilities, including high debt levels, export dependence, and potential economic sanctions, could impact China’s ability to sustain military progress.
While the US currently leads, it must remain vigilant and continue investing in military technology research and development to maintain its advantage.