On May 10th, the Russian military crossed the border from northeast Ukraine and renewed its offensive towards the Kharkiv region. Despite some progress in the Russian military’s offensive in the Kharkiv region, the speed of the advance has noticeably slowed down. Russian President Putin may consider launching similar attacks in other regions to test his luck. Ukrainian military journalist Boghdan Meroshnykov reported on the frontline situation in the Kharkiv region, noting that Russian forces achieved tactical success in the Lypchy direction, but as Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack on the left flank of the Russian forces, they were forced to retreat.
According to The Economist, Ukrainian forces successfully managed to control Russian forces near Volchansk and the further western Lypchy area. The report mentioned that “The Russian forces, estimated at 48,000 troops, did not have sufficient forces to launch a large-scale attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.”
Kharkiv, being a border city, faces cross-border shelling and airstrikes from the Russian military. Unlike the initial stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Russian forces have learned lessons from their first year of operational failures. There have been improvements not only in operational planning but also in weapon systems.
The Russian military heavily relies on drones and cruise missiles on the frontline, outnumbering the Ukrainian forces significantly. Through the use of a large number of suicide drones and cruise missiles, Russian forces have depleted Ukraine’s valuable air defense missiles. This has significantly reduced the ground missile threat faced by the Russian air force which has become more active in recent months, frequently conducting airstrikes on Ukrainian positions and controlled areas.
In the battles in Kharkiv, Russian forces extensively used glide bombs, which are modified powerful FAB-1500 bombs from the Soviet era. With a large stockpile of FAB-1500 bombs left over from the former Soviet Union, these aviation bombs weighing 1.5 tons, with added guidance control equipment and foldable wings, can glide 50-60 kilometers when dropped from high altitudes.
Despite being at a disadvantage on the ground, the increase in capabilities of suicide drones and the large number of U.S. government-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles have enabled the Ukrainian forces to enhance their attacks on Crimea and southern Russian refineries. Crimea was a key target of the Ukrainian airstrikes on May 19, marking the most significant attack on Crimea to date. Within an hour, almost all major Russian military targets on the peninsula experienced explosions.
The Ukrainian military dared to launch attacks on almost all Russian military targets in Crimea, indicating that the Russian air defense network in Crimea may have been destroyed or at least severely damaged. Prior to the recent large-scale airstrikes, Ukrainian forces launched continuous attacks on Russian air defense facilities in Crimea using Storm Shadow cruise missiles and Army tactical missiles. They even deployed special forces to land and destroy coastal Russian radar stations and other targets.
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