【Current Military Affairs】Thousands of Russian troops are trapped, war enters the track to Kyiv.

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After destroying several bridges, the Ukrainian military has advanced south of the Semy River, planning to establish a buffer zone within Russian territory by gaining more control over land.

As part of the “buffer zone” plan, the Ukrainian military is pushing westward towards Hlushkovo, attempting to approach the Russian forces south of the Semy River, to clear the recently occupied territory of Kurzsk. This is part of the effort to establish a border buffer zone. In the process, several thousand Russian troops might be trapped in a small enclosed area on the south bank of the Kurzsk Semy River due to the destruction of the bridges.

Russian media and military blogs state that the Ukrainian military has destroyed all three bridges over the Semy River inside Russian territory. This has isolated the Russian forces there, leaving them reliant on potentially vulnerable pontoon bridges for limited supply. While there are witness accounts of ongoing construction of pontoon bridges by the Russian military, recent satellite images indicate their absence.

These bridges are within range of various Ukrainian air and ground-guided weapons. The Ukrainian Air Force can use extended-range Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM-ER) or Hammer stand-off guided bombs to target these bridges, while HIMARS or M270-launched GMLRS guided rockets can also attack these targets from the ground, not to mention the pontoon bridges.

On August 20, the 15th day of the Kurzsk operation, Ukrainian military sources stated that due to the destruction of all three bridges crossing the Semy River in Russian Kurzsk territory, approximately 3,000 Russian soldiers are now trapped in a confined area outside the border village of Tyotekino, with little room to maneuver, just under 5 kilometers away from the Semy River.

Most of these trapped Russian soldiers lack combat experience. If the Ukrainian forces launch an attack from the east, it would be fatal for the Russian soldiers whether they choose to hold their ground or retreat. Crossing the Semy River for a retreat would force them to abandon vehicles and heavy equipment and leave them open to Ukrainian drone and ground artillery attacks. The lethality of this battle also depends on whether the Ukrainian forces still possess enough combat power to “digest” this group of Russian troops.

President Zelensky of Ukraine stated in a speech on Sunday (the 18th) evening that the primary goal of the overall defense operation is to destroy as much as possible of Russia’s war potential, including establishing a “buffer zone” within Russian territory. The term “buffer zone” was originally used by Putin to describe his objectives in the southern city of Kharkiv, Ukraine. Zelensky’s adoption of this terminology adds a sense of irony. Additionally, Zelensky describes the incursion into Russia as an overall defense operation, distinguishing it from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Syrskyi, stated that Ukraine continues to achieve new gains in the Kurzsk operation and diversify the “foreign exchange fund.” He refers to Russian prisoners of war who can be exchanged using this fund.

Oleksiy Drozdenko, head of the Ukrainian Northeast Military Administration, announced on the 12th day of the Kurzsk operation in Kyiv that Ukraine captures an average of 150 Russian soldiers daily. Many of the captured soldiers are young recruits tasked with protecting the southwestern borders of Russia. Some have admitted they do not wish to fight against the Ukrainian military.

Compared to the numerous casualties and prisoners on the Russian side, Kyiv has suffered much lower losses. This seemingly proves that Ukraine’s cross-border offensive has been successful so far. Drozdenko mentioned that on the first day of the operation, there were only 15 casualties, mostly minor injuries caused by shrapnel.

Zelensky also refers to captured Russian soldiers as a “foreign exchange fund” and claims that the success in Kurzsk rapidly replenishes this fund, bringing the release of captive Ukrainian soldiers and civilians detained by Russia closer. He stated, “No matter how difficult, we will search for everyone who may be detained and bring everyone home.”

The discussion of the latest developments in the Ukrainian military’s operations within Russia aims to help people assess the trend of this war and understand the broader impact of the Kurzsk operation on the entire conflict.

The Kurzsk operation plan was kept highly secretive by the Ukrainian military from the outset. Evidently, the Ukrainian forces successfully struck in the weakest part of the Russian defense line. Their main goal is to resolve the Donbas situation and create leverage for future negotiations. Commander Syrskyi only shared his plans with a select few high-ranking military officials and had direct, one-on-one conversations with the President without staff present. Most of the intelligence work was confined to military intelligence agencies internally, and even the details were not briefed to the Pentagon before the operation.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the United States has been monitoring and analyzing the information and perspectives released by Russian military blogs, filtering through some of the false information distributed by the Kremlin through Russian official media to understand the true situation and details of the Russian military operations. The institute’s analysis suggests that at least some Russian irregular forces have withdrawn from the Donetsk front in eastern Ukraine and redeployed within Russian territory.

However, Russia’s overall defensive posture has hardly changed thus far, even after Ukraine appointed General Eduard Moskaliov as the new military commander for the Kurzsk theater and announced the establishment of a buffer zone. The Russian military has not reinforced its defense in the Kurzsk direction as quickly as Ukraine hoped. Despite resistance from Moscow against reallocating frontline troops, they may eventually have to adjust their troop deployment, releasing pressure on the Ukrainian forces along the entire southeastern front.

Ukraine’s swift advances into Russia have a significant psychological impact on both the Russian and Ukrainian populations. For Ukraine, reclaiming even small victories after years of Russian territorial annexation is morale-boosting. On the other side, the Russian people will reassess the war, particularly observing that Moscow, in its sudden invasion, has been unable to defend its own territory, yet insists on not acknowledging this as part of the war. Moscow labels the action of preventing the Ukrainian forces’ invasion as a “counter-terrorism operation,” while Putin portrays the invasion as “large-scale provocation,” seemingly downplaying its severity.

To some extent, the significance of this operation ultimately depends on how Russia chooses to respond. If Ukraine successfully establishes and strengthens the buffer zone within Russian territory, the Russian military will have no choice but to react. The result will likely weaken the Russian military’s capabilities on the Ukrainian front. Conversely, if the Russian military fails to amass enough forces to repel the Ukrainian troops, the occupied Russian land may quickly become a springboard for the next steps of the Ukrainian military, potentially leading to occupying more Russian territory or launching attacks from behind on Russian forces in Ukrainian territory. Moscow cannot escape the passive consequences of becoming entangled in the entire Ukrainian conflict, and Ukraine may accumulate leverage for future peace negotiations by expanding its territorial gains within Russian territory.

In conclusion, Russia losing territory in the war with Ukraine will further diminish its military standing among global and regional powers. While Russia was once considered the world’s second-largest military power, its invasion of Ukraine demonstrates that its war theories from the Cold War era are outdated, and its command structure is ill-equipped to adapt to the rapidly changing modern battlefield, resulting in the erosion of its influence as a major power.

It is reported that the Kremlin is still demanding Ukraine to cede additional territory aside from what has already been occupied, or there will be no peace negotiations. Putin seems determined to leave Russia a “glorious” legacy but may be overly idealistic.